Ken Goldstein Consumers Quotations

If all we've had is consumption, not business investment, there could be a self-fulfilling factor here, ... If consumers run out of patience, they start trimming sales a bit, and the economy, rather than picking up, may weaken a bit. Then the consumer says, 'See, I told you it was going to happen.'

Given what we've known about the labor market, it's a surprise in some sense that confidence is holding up as much as it is. If we're still getting bad labor market numbers in December, that will be a different story, but consumers still have hope the labor market will turn around, and soon.

The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.

The spike in energy prices is another major factor changing the direction of the economy, worsened by a decline in confidence by both consumers and chief executives.

The three things that most concern consumers are jobs, jobs and jobs.

Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.

Consumers are concerned that wages are not keeping pace with inflation, and managers feel they can't raise prices. It's difficult to imagine how both can be satisfied in 2006.

The Indicators are pointing to significantly slower growth in the first half of 2001, ... The economy continues to cool off and there are now some job vacancies with no one to fill them. More recently, both businesses and consumers have become somewhat more cautious.