We're grinding out some good increases here. We're producing more than we ever did and our capacity to produce industrial goods has increased.
Consumer spending in the fourth quarter is going to be low, and capital spending and inventory rebuilding is what takes up the slack. There are also increases in government purchases, a lot of that going for Gulf reconstruction.
Consumers are still willing to spend, even with the high energy prices, and capital investment is booming. By the second half of the year, we'll see the cumulative effect of interest- rate increases begin to bite and the economy slow.