I think were just having a little short-covering ahead of the weekend. We often see a bit of bottom-fishing when the yield is around 4.5%.
Our view is very optimistic. We believe that the tight yield curve is the result of the Fed's continued tightening. We are expecting economic growth of 4% much of this year. That is far from a recession.
The fact that he didn't suggest any time frame for a pause is going to leave rates biased slightly higher. People still think a yield near 4.7% on the long end is a pretty good deal.
The yield initially knee-jerked lower on the weak durable goods data and the Saudi news.
The yield curve remains steady ... indicating that the upside inflation risk appears to be canceled out by Fed vigilance for now.