Inflation concerns are going to push up bond yields. Ten-year yields will rise to 2 percent in the first quarter.
It is possible that this year will mark the end of the deflation and will bring in a paradigm shift to the bond market next year. Ten-year yields may rise to 2 percent by the end of March next year.
Given that producer prices have risen more than 2 percent over the past few months, we have to consider that in Japan's corporate environment inflation is already mounting. Producer price inflation is highly likely to translate into consumer price increases.
We expect the core nationwide CPI to rise 0.4 pct year-on-year, for a fourth straight month of non-negative growth.
US yields have continued to rise in anticipation of tightening beyond normalization, and we should also prepare for a paradigm shift in Japan as well.
As the data show, the gap between domestic supply and demand is clearly narrowing, which should create the environment for prices to rise stably.