We think the probability of a Delta bankruptcy filing has grown, and we think investors should be mindful of Oct. 17, when more restrictive bankruptcy legislation becomes effective. That could be a key factor in a Delta deciding whether to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Our previous view ascribed a 50 percent to 60 percent probability to a Delta Chapter 11 filing. We now think it's 80 percent to 90 percent, primarily to the recent surge in oil prices north of $60 a barrel,