I don't expect the market to gain momentum in either direction until it gains new clarity about the possibility of a May rate hike. The overall trend in housing demand remains relatively weaker compared with 2005.
The squeeze has eased considerably. We knew the passage was coming.
This confirms our expectations that rates should be headed higher here as people are pricing in a more hawkish Fed.
The big part of the move today is driven by the view that the Fed will likely go more than what the market had thought.
It took off OK, but then it got snuffed out.
The new contract would be more useful for hedging purposes.
I don't think this sheds a whole lot of new light on where the Fed is headed. Over the next several months, we retain our bearish bias and expect yields to grind higher.
The market had been on a bearish trend. This (data) does little to change any views.