Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
impending indicative orders overall recovery south trend
The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector.
bought found good inflation lucky numbers officials position rate time
I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),
clear inflation lower margins point profit pushing rise rising seem sign taking terms
I think the only clear sign that would really tell you that inflation should be rising at this point is, of course, the rise in hourly earnings, ... But at this stage, from what we've seen, corporations seem to be taking it in terms of lower profit margins and, therefore, not necessarily pushing up prices.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
below headline jobs looking maybe numbers obviously plenty scratch sector slightly stronger weakness
Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
cut forthright future interest rates seeing seems
He seems to be more forthright in seeing a willingness to cut interest rates in the future than expected, ... It is uncharacteristically blunt.
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
bullets cut fed fire gut left next percentage says therefore
My gut says the Fed doesn't have too many bullets left to fire, and therefore they have to use them sparingly, and we'll see a (quarter percentage point) cut at the next meeting.
clearly consistent data decline employment meaningful michigan poor trends
Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
black carries inflation less likely policy problem risk targeting
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.
above consistent economic growth numbers payroll
Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend,
bond cheerful market peculiar plenty seem situation
We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.
bond higher might pattern provide resolved terms trading
To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields,