Andy Xie
Andy Xie
Andy Xieis an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist famous for his contrarian and provocative views. He left Morgan Stanley abruptly in October 2006 when an internal email that he penned was leaked. He derided Singapore as a money laundering centre for Indonesia, and the ASEAN group of nations as a failure...
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Either you have a big adjustment like a 20 percent or 30 percent decline, or you have a big recession or you have a slow decline in property prices or several years of no growth.
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China has built up massive capacity for processing commodities. The sunk cost inside China has made it more vulnerable to price squeezing pressure in the commodity market.
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In particular, if another Bush government moves on to Iran, then oil prices would go very high and really threaten China's economic development.
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The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe,
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The financial sector may have become dependent on the trading profits from oil. As evidence accumulates over weakening demand and strong supply, I believe oil prices could collapse,
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When two countries agree to work together, there's no need to pin down details at the highest level. It's different between China and the United States... because it's difficult for these two countries to work together.
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We're going down to the bottom. No one knows where that is.
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Korea's consumption growth is currently very much dependent on sentiment and unanticipated wealth gains, leading to concerns about the sustainability of consumption recovery.
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Over the next two decades, one of the two deltas will become the pre-eminent leader in China's economy, ... The YRD has the advantage in geography.
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Overseas Chinese control, by my estimate, $2 trillion of liquid assets that can be mobilized instantly to punt on anything from European football games to Shanghai property. This source of money is both the boon and the bane of China's economic development.
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The policy is still very defensive. The government doesn't know what's going to replace the economic activity that is being moved to China.
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What we need to see are concrete measures aimed at getting the bureaucracy to pursue this objective, otherwise all this will be just more rhetoric.
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The reason why the economy has grown at this pace is because of the banks' lending terms. If they don't want to economy to grow so much, they need to tighten their lending terms.
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The opening of Disneyland this year could prolong the boom for another two years.