Anthony Crescenzi Quotations

What we're seeing is an increase in the manufacturing sector, ... The manufacturing sector has been very weak for the last year and a half -- since the Asian (financial) crisis. Now, that sector seems to be recovering.

What he did was defend his actions rather than quell the fears of systemic risk. I'm really surprised that he'd do more to stem fears of hedge-fund community fallout.

Unless the Bush administration can successfully counter recent criticism, Bush and consumer confidence might continue to flounder. If so, the markets will justifiably worry about Bush's chances of re-election.

The refinancing boom and effects from the tax rebates are waning, so spending on big-ticket items such as cars may be slowing down, ... But spending on services, which is where the majority of the job creation occurs, has held on, and we expect it to pick up. Friday's payroll report should be a good indication of that.

One of the key reasons payrolls exceeded the consensus was due to a 31K gain in manufacturing jobs, the first gain in 11 months. With more of these high-paying jobs in the mix, average wages were pulled higher.

But the resolution of the issue may begin to alleviate fears about systemic risk?Today we should all be looking at our financial system and saying these risks are very low, very few, and that we have a financial system that is sound.

Businesses have responded rapidly to the economic climate, showing the dynamic nature of the U.S. economy, and it's very good for the long-term outlook.

Given that some of the news of late ... has been on the weak side, and given that the Fed's own Beige Book report reflected weakness, they might show an inclination to cutting rates in the future,

For so long, an individual who owned a small business or had influence over pricing somehow, would say, 'Prices aren't rising, so we can't raise prices, either.' Now they can see, with this data and through anecdotal evidence, that others are raising prices, and they may feel they can raise their prices now.

Fundamentally there is not a good basis for the yen to rally today. But the bottom line is the dollar is more stable than we would have thought Friday.

If anything, we could get an additional 175 basis points this year, potentially, if the economy continues to show the kind of vigor we've had so far.

If the economy slows beyond what we've now priced in, which is about a one- to two-percent growth trajectory, then we can begin to see a decline in yields again perhaps.

What you're left with is a figure consistent with the inflation rate slowly moving upward,

Greenspan's comments have been so specific to the markets and costs. The price index was worse than the market would have liked.

Greenspan's comments have been so specific to the markets and costs, ... The price index was worse than the market would have liked.

I think it is more psychological than anything. But there is concern more money will be put in euro reserves than in dollar reserves.

I think it is more psychological than anything, ... But there is concern more money will be put in euro reserves than in dollar reserves.

It contained a lot of generalized ideas, but it seems like just his thoughts about what the G-7 should discuss.

I think their general view will be more upbeat, but it remains to be seen how upbeat, because they don't want to cannibalize their main message, which is that policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period,

I think we have conditions in place now that could put off the tightening. Unfortunately, there is some inflation embedding itself.

I think this is just a hiccup in a very strong trend that we expect to continue.

It is a microcosm of events generally hitting the market, ... and it reinforces the notion that there are yet-to-be-reported losses at other institutions that would pose systemic risk.

Looking out even further toward the end of the year, investors might grow optimistic about the end-of-year economic situation, as 2004's strong job growth could be seen as raising the prospects for holiday spending, hence giving the economy momentum as it enters 2005,

I'm struck, ... Originally I thought that in a recession we could get below 5 percent, but we're not even close to one (a recession.)

That was the key. All of those numbers were bearish for the market.

We haven't seen big gains in jobs yet, so Greenspan can't be completely confident this expansion will be self-reinforcing, ... But I believe a blowout employment report is on the near-term horizon, and that will set the conditions for a change in interest rates.

When risk aversion is declining, money will flow out of the safe-haven Treasury market into riskier assets, ... High-yield bonds have increased in price in the past week; holders of junk bonds are doing well right now.

There is a certain skepticism with regard to the rallies that we have seen in the stock market. We have yet to see the worst of the economic news.

This time, they want to keep rates low to fight deflation -- a demon that may have vanished already. They might be successful again, but something else might build up, some other unintended consequence, including some inflation.

There are hints now that the worst may be over in the labor story.

There are growing indications the market is more stable,

The PPI just feeds the deflation talk that's run rampant in the past month or so, ... It's upsetting for someone who believes deflation is on the way. Even though there are qualifiers for the April data, that headline is dramatic enough to convince them.

There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.

While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.

Expectations are one of the biggest parts of the inflation process,

The recent rally in the stock market might be captured (in the numbers).

What's the expression? 'If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession, but if you lose your job, it's a depression?' Maybe it depends on who's making the definition.

Even if the economy slows, there will still be inflation, ... But there comes a point when the Fed won't pay attention to inflation because of a slowing economy.

Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved.

Corporate treasurers are getting a bit nervous about the equity market, ... They are probably concerned about some spread widening that could come with a deeper decline inequities.

There's only been one spokesperson on the dollar. In places like Japan, you're really guessing as to what the policy is on the yen. No one else speaks for dollar policy - it's a fact. That's why the dollar has had a three-year run against the yen.

The Treasury market rally may be a bear trap. The rally lacks a strong foundation as well as the extreme pessimism that marks the end of sell-offs.

The Treasury market rally may be a bear trap, ... The rally lacks a strong foundation as well as the extreme pessimism that marks the end of sell-offs.

I've been calling for the bond yield since the beginning of the year to get toward 6 percent,

The risk aversion was a touch smaller today, but it was more of a toe-step into the markets that were beaten up badly.

It would be a mistake to get bearish on the consumer now. It's been a mistake to be bearish on the consumer for many years.

It would be a mistake to get bearish on the consumer now, ... It's been a mistake to be bearish on the consumer for many years.

It was very well subscribed -- and that was why they raised it and it ended up being $4.8 billion.

Rubin said that it is too early to talk about a Brazil rescue plan,

Right now we have to take a step back and say how much further can we go with this news. Where fed funds are now, at 6.5 percent, makes it somewhat difficult for the (bond) market to trade higher or lower in yield.

The money channeled from failed industries to small businesses would be taxed at higher rates, and that would be harmful to the economy,

Any money given to seniors probably would get spent and therefore help the economy.

Any losses associated with near-term issues will likely be reversed by November. By then, worries about event-risks associated with the conventions, the Olympics and the election will hopefully have passed.

As alarming as this is -- and the trend is certainly not very favorable -- it's not like it was in the last recession.

The burden of proof is on the bears right now.

As long as the economy moves along, you'll get profits rising steadily ... I don't think this (selling) will last steadily.

You're going to get these rallies in dribs and drabs, between now and January

This is a sign of optimism the expansion will continue and it's consistent with move up in stock prices.

This is evidence of what many have said they've personally experienced, ... Many people can relate to the idea that the inflation rate has accelerated, when they take trips to gas station or buy food or health care -- so many products and services.

This is not a good way to intervene, to tell the markets ... What you want them to do is panic their way out of their positions.

There were rumors that the Fed might cut rates today, but of course they did nothing.

The report is universally strong and is pointing to growth in excess of Greenspan's objectives.

The release of the factory orders probably won't change the Fed's decision, ... The report reinforces that the manufacturing sector is recovering.

Foreigners look down on the situation a lot more readily than do U.S. investors, ... people don't sense he will be removed from office.

Foreigners are going to be selling stocks because of the Clinton matter, ... unless there is a flare that hits the dollar.

It's time to trade out of investments whose success depends on a strong economy... for both stocks and corporate bonds.

The numbers today allay any concern that the Fed may adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rates. The employment gains we've seen of late remain modest by historical standards.

That makes it more likely we will need to have repeated hikes, because the economy won't succumb to a small handful of hikes.

Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.

The bond market expects the stock market to fall very hard ... people are trading scared.

The basis for a rally in bonds has gotten smaller.

It will reinforce what's happened recently in the debt markets, (the idea) that there's been a sharp underperformance in high-risk assets,

They could have said there's a clear acceleration in economic activity currently under way, but it remains at risk of weakening or reversing, owing to the labor market and other factors. To leave it out completely doesn't make any sense to me -- it's as if they think the market's full of dummies.

They look at many things ... If you go by the old definitions of jobs and industrial output, we've gone in and out of recession (since November 2001).

not really much of a factor, except to the extent it's delaying the impeachment proceeding.

Again, another whipsaw day, ... What big news did we get today? ... Nothing.

The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.

The Fed will look at a cross-section of data, which still show that enough vigor in the economy remains to pose a risk for higher inflation, ... If the Fed were to hold off on raising rates on Tuesday, they would create additional stimulus for the economy by causing a further drop in other interest rates.

The Fed's history has been that they solve one problem but create another,

The Fed's about to cut rates, and they may cut more from a dearth of sellers than from a host of new buyers. Some people continue to make their bet on the possibility of a 50-basis point move. You see people buying to speculate on a larger cut...you're going to get closer to that meeting and you're going to find fewer sellers.

The Fed needs to align itself with the inflation expectations of the market, unless it has a strong -- and hopefully accurate -- view about how the inflation trend is evolving.

The Fed doesn't want sudden market reactions in response to news that might be difficult; they want to cause as little volatility as possible, ... Greenspan has admitted to sending signals in the past -- it's the way they operate.

In an environment where there is a lot of uncertainty, the short end will get the benefit. The bond is catching up to the strength on the short end.

In a sense the market exhausted itself on the downside yesterday,

In the context of the PPI released last week, which was much higher than expected, the CPI is a big relief,

In the morning, many people thought the Clinton report would hurt the stock market - but it happened yesterday and Wednesday.

If the manufacturing sector were to see even a reduced rate of decline, it would have an effect on overall employment statistics,

But his deflation comment seemed to really change things -- he said that it is coming closer to our shores.

How in the world could he be unfriendly given that they just cut rates? He's got to keep on with the program -- which is to keep prodding the market to stabilize.

The inflation news due out on Friday with the producer price index and next Tuesday with the consumer price index will probably be unfriendly,

And it was just more robotic statements about the Japanese yen.

The economy is less interest-rate sensitive than it was a year ago because of income growth, and we have corporate profits higher than capital spending -- a condition only seen rarely in the past 40 years -- meaning companies don't need to borrow as much,

The Dow went from 8,360 to 8,420 in the last 45 minutes. That turned the bonds down,

The Chinese devaluation would be devastating to the equity markets, and it would be good for bonds, ... But that is not a credible fear right now. The inflation that would come from devaluation would cause social instability.

The comments don't hint either way really. People were just hoping for a signal about the rate move, and he rarely provides that.

And if not for the gyrations in the equity market, it would have been a lot thinner.

The market's applauding the resolve of the Fed and acting accordingly, ... In that way, its behavior is rational.

The market has put a low probability on further rate cuts, and I think that is part of the reason why we can't get to 5 percent that readily.

The market has priced in a rate cut, of at least a quarter point, ... and this morning it was for a rate cut of .75 - and I think that is where Greenspan would draw the line.

The market has done part of the job, but this tightening is not yet substantial -- financial conditions are still near their loosest points in many, many years,