Brian Tunick
Brian Tunick
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We believe it will have similar price points and target the same demographic as Banana Republic and J. Crew.
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On the economic front, deflation is hurting companies. Mall traffic across the U.S. is down for the last 21 months, there's a lack of fashion newness out there. The average price that teens are paying for an item is down, and it's difficult to see profit pick up in 2003.
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When you compare that to the industry multiple of 13.5, these stocks look a little overpriced but they are in good shape.
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With November comparable down 8 percent and the company lowering guidance once again, Hot Topic continues to be on the wrong side of the fashion trend with no near term catalysts in sight. Hot Topic will obviously need to take deep markdowns in order to clear unwanted holiday product.
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As the company begins to anniversary difficult sales comparisons and investors look to the holiday season, Sharper Image is on a lot of retail investors' radar screen.
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The stock is a little ahead of itself given where the market is today. Investors are excited about it because improved sales indicate that the worst of the suit cycle is over and there's a suit replenishment cycle going on now. But sales per square footage are still down.
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We're forecasting $50 million in volume in 2003. This business drives 2.1 million customer visits a year as customers must come into the store to pick out, pick up, and drop off the tuxedos -- creating an excellent opportunity to drive incremental sales.
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Investors should be excited about teen apparel stocks because most of the merchants in that space are competing for a huge $70 billion pie. Whereas the overall retail apparel space is suffering from overcapacity and increasing competition, the teen space is really a niche segment of that pie and has a lot more room to grow.
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The good news continue to be the fact that with growth in its Hollister division, a fast-growing Internet business, a new concept coming in the third quarter and flattish comps (sales compared to last year) in the core adult business, healthy top-line growth should be sustainable. Also, Abercrombie's men's business is finally beginning to show some life after three years of negative comparable sales.