Whether retail money is going to rotate back into the market in a huge way is the key. My guess is it's not going to happen.
There is a risk that if China liberalizes the foreign exchange system when the banks need to be recapitalized, there could be trauma in the system. My impression is that the Chinese are going to be as gradual as they can.
Yes, it's an unambiguous positive. But in terms of its overall importance, it's only marginal.
Obviously, the economy ails from important secular imbalances; there's a lot to be concerned about. But the cyclical forces indicate that, at least over the coming quarters, visibility is high.
Nobody can pinpoint when this process will come to an end. But it is very clear that it can't go on forever. Do you let this bubble grow, or do you do something about it?
Cash levels are very low. The bullish case is to say that money-market fund levels are very high, which means that investors have the wherewithal to rotate back into equities. My take on that is I wouldn't hold my breath.
I take great pride in the integrity and quality of our product, which often reflected non-consensus calls, even within the bank.
That would be a positive. Some of the world's excess capacity would be ameliorated.
The deal is a clear sign that it still pays to be overweight Mexico and we expect to see more upside.
We could talk about sunspots, we could talk about fiscal year-end effects, but whatever the explanation may be, history is on the side of the fourth quarter being a good one.
The story is clearest in the natural resource area. They import a lot from resource-rich countries like Brazil and Chile. It's no mistake that those are two of the top five performing markets in the world this year.
The things that make up the bulk of consumer expenditures for most U.S. households -- all of them seem to be moving up significantly.
Are we going to break up or down? It's hard to say at this point. What is becoming clear is that buying volatility may not be a bad thing.
It's not unexpected. We think it's a healthy move.
Stocks will probably hit a wall in the next couple of months, unless we move closer to the Goldilocks scenario.
If rates keep going higher, that will pose some problems to sizeable chunks of the stock market, particularly financials and other areas that are interest-rate sensitive.
In that environment, it's only natural to expect the switch from labor into technology.
By introducing noise, they hope the adjustment will be smoother.
I don't see a lot of value in emerging-market bonds. They've probably seen their best levels for the year and perhaps for longer than that.
The comments are more beneficial for Latin American markets than the market was expecting.