Cary Leahey Quotations

On the prices paid index, you're down 50 points from the highs in October, which the bond market clearly likes.

That, combined with no job growth, makes it harder and harder for the Fed to pull the trigger in an election year.

We're not talking about large sums of money. It is ironically only worth a couple of dollars to the Social Security check of the average American. They may be able to knock back a cold beer in a cheap bar.

Yet another survey of the economy is suggesting sustainable strength. Rates backed up a little because of this report, but you're treading water a bit because of payrolls data lurking on Friday.

The PPI number had some pipeline pressure underneath the surface, but the market liked the fact that the core rate was up only 0.1 percent,

You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years, ... It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year.

Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains,

These are the kinds of things that raise eyebrows at the Fed. The implication that this January report has for wage inflation is bothersome to the market and the Fed.

A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now.

One cannot deny that Katrina ironically may have had a positive effect on this index because of the big surge in orders.

Companies aren't afraid of being left in the dust; they're afraid that if they go first they'll be eaten by sharks, ... Everybody is standing in front of the turnstile, and nobody wants to go through.

This is one of the days when nobody is really going to care because the employment report was definitely weak.

It's an impressive number. It just gives you more confidence that you'll get 4.0 percent plus (increases) in the fourth quarter and you'll hang in there through the first.

The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year.

The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease.

It's certainly an impressive number, it's the lowest since early 2001.

The Fed might skip (raising rates in) September -- but you have to remember that how the world looks today and how it looks on September 20 could be a lot different -- a lot worse or a lot better.

I lean toward a half point instead of a quarter. The Fed wants to shore up confidence, to show that, unlike the European Central Bank, it feels your pain.

Clearly Greenspan's luster has dimmed, and there's this worry that he's fired a lot of bullets and the bullets he has left won't do any good.

I don't see anything in the speech that is relevant to the near-term outlook.

The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand.

The important thing is not whether the Fed can ease but the fact that people can even ask that question and some intelligent people say if the Fed raises rates in September, it would be a public relations disaster.

The first quarter is off to a very strong start. This will dominate some of the disappointing numbers we got earlier this week at least in terms of forecasting GDP. It's hard not to have a GDP forecast now that's not around 5 percent or higher.

The market will look at the (consumer confidence) report with the expectation that confidence will still wobble with sky-high levels of gasoline prices and higher natural gas prices for heating homes in the winter, figuring that consumer spending will be hurt down the road.