Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg
Christopher Thornberg is the Founding Partner of Beacon Economics, LLC, an independent research and consulting firm. Under his leadership, Beacon Economics became known as one of the earliest and most adamant forecasters of the subprime mortgage market meltdown in 2007...
building current drive equity existing fast fixing homes housing interest mention order per spend tend
Building 200,000 new residences per year, not to mention the current interest in fixing up existing homes in order to spend new housing equity as fast as possible, will tend to drive this (employment).
add smooth
That could smooth out the cycle, so to speak. But when you add it all up, it's unclear.
employment lots showing
We have lots of new employees. It's just not showing up in the employment statistics.
bubble housing seen size strange
We've never seen this size of a housing bubble before, so in a sense we're in kind of a strange place right now.
appreciation bonus consumers expect likely longer pull realize subsidize
When consumers realize they can no longer expect that appreciation bonus to subsidize their consumption habits, they will very likely pull back on spending.
bubble dropping fixed housing huge lots market pop prices stock
We say it's a bubble, but a housing bubble does not pop like a stock market bubble, ... A stock market bubble, when it pops, lots of market activity, prices dropping rapidly. Housing prices don't drop that way because there's a huge fixed cost. You don't day-trade your home.
crazy financing gotten people point prices
You got to think that this thing is going to end, eventually, one way or another. Prices have gotten to the point that, even with all the crazy financing out there, people still can't get into the market. It's just that over the top.
nation oil
We as a nation are not as oil dependant as we were back then.
bottom economy point top
We're in a housing-driven economy from top to bottom at this point in time.
housing party signs
There are some signs that the housing party is ending.
debate general hard landing mean trend
Things are still hot, but the trend is clear. The only debate now is how hard a landing there will be and what will it mean for the general economy.
maybe pay people prices today
Prices people pay today will be about the same in 2011, maybe 2012.
fragile
Let's put it this way: We will be in a fragile economy.
deal issue nobody wants
It's such a contentious issue that nobody wants to deal with it.