Daniel Katzive Quotations

Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.

Moreover, with a fair amount of Fed tightening now priced in, the US currency remains more vulnerable to downside surprises than upside surprises.

Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.

Further evidence of stability in the housing market and solid retail activity could prompt a rethink of MPC easing risk now priced in, allowing the euro to retreat sharply against the pound.

We suspect that the end of the Fed tightening cycle as policy tightening continues in the key low-yield economies will leave the dollar increasingly exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the second quarter.

It adds near-term upside risk for the dollar.

I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.

I think this is a sign that the market remains disproportionately sensitive to downside surprises in U.S. data as opposed to the upside, given how much (Fed rate hikes) is already priced in.

Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.

While a hike in May remains fully priced, prospects for tightening beyond that have been marked down.

The data suggests the big momentum positions which had mirrored carry trades have now been cut back to much more neutral levels, which should provide a good backdrop for carry trade rebuilding in the new year.

We see strength in energy-related flows into the country, which underpins the Canadian dollar.

The reason the dollar is staying strong is because markets have continued to price in more Fed tightening.

We think it's really too soon to see a definitive change from the BOJ. It's more of a second quarter story.

There's more to the dollar weakness this week than just an adjustment in interest rates.

Oil prices have continued to move higher and equities have apparently taken it badly.

The yen continued to strengthen this morning at the expense of high yielding currencies such as Australian and New Zealand dollars as well as the US dollar.

It's got to be the yen. That is the currency with the lowest yield and borrowers can be comfortable that the BOJ is not going to significantly boost their funding costs over the course of the year.

Data has been strong enough heading into year-end to prevent market participants from making strong conclusions on the likely timing of the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, and in this environment the dollar is likely to remain well-supported for now.

The better tone in global equity markets as crude prices moderate a bit has helped ease risk aversion concerns, to the dollar's benefit.

If US data begins to slow markedly in the coming weeks, as our US economics team suspects, the dollar is likely come under renewed pressure.

The dollar needs a good global growth backdrop to remain well supported.

The dollar is continuing to respond to the new shift in tone from the FOMC yesterday, and that has continued to work through, not only on the currency market but also on the interest rate and equity markets.

The FX market is watching interest rate markets and short- end yields have come off and that's because core CPI was tame. For the dollar to continue to do well, you need interest rate expectations to continue to move in its favor, and with a fair amount of tightening already priced in, that's getting harder and harder.