David Resler
David Resler
benefits costs increase pressure sign wage
The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.
income numbers people planning
People are still planning to spend, and today's income numbers tell us that they have the wherewithal to do so.
attitudes commit concerned consumer fact future income louder people seem speaks unwilling
People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
employment holidays job large market swings time
Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
affect consumer gas higher prices
We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
activity businesses half imagine improvement lean left numbers pointing satisfy second toward
Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
bad lasts money people supply
Nevertheless, money supply contractions are often harbingers of bad times ahead, and if this lasts much longer, people will get more concerned.
increase
One of these days, we're going to see an increase in non-farm payrolls for the manufacturing sector.
across anecdotal array economic evidence factual hit reports seem since telling wall wide
Since the end of January, things seem to have hit a wall across a wide array of economic indicators. This confirms what all that anecdotal evidence and factual reports have been telling us.
economists environment inventory investment pricing
Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.
advances businesses capacity capital choice faster obsolete preserve rates rendered true
While it's true that capacity use rates are very low, it's also true that much of that capacity has been rendered obsolete by technological advances and that replacement of capital is faster than it used to be. So a lot of businesses may feel they have little choice but to spend, if they want to preserve their competitive edge.
confidence forecast gives growth maintain momentum next pointing raise send short strong toward
It's nothing short of incredible. It's not enough to send me scurrying to raise my forecast for next year, but it's pointing toward considerable momentum going into the new year. It gives me more confidence we're going to be able to maintain strong growth in the first half.