David Resler Quotations

We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.

Since the end of January, things seem to have hit a wall across a wide array of economic indicators. This confirms what all that anecdotal evidence and factual reports have been telling us.

Nevertheless, money supply contractions are often harbingers of bad times ahead, and if this lasts much longer, people will get more concerned.

One of these days, we're going to see an increase in non-farm payrolls for the manufacturing sector.

It could be a drag on earnings...something that delays the revival of profits so central to the revival of the economy itself.

I think we can look to several more months, if not years, of this kind of performance. This is a terrific inflation report - exactly the kind of thing we all like to see.

Overall, the data for the capital goods sector remains somewhat erratic, but the underlying trend remains upward.

Overall the 56.7 reading for the ISM index is consistent with (economic) growth in the first quarter running above 5.0 percent.

Overall, durable orders need to be looked at on a trend basis, and even after the drop in orders other than transportation orders ... the capital good sector remains very healthy and will contribute solidly to growth throughout 2006.

We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.

Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.

We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.

We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.

There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.

While it's true that capacity use rates are very low, it's also true that much of that capacity has been rendered obsolete by technological advances and that replacement of capital is faster than it used to be. So a lot of businesses may feel they have little choice but to spend, if they want to preserve their competitive edge.

Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.

Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.

We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.

Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.

The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.

People are still planning to spend, and today's income numbers tell us that they have the wherewithal to do so.

People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.

A reading as high as 58.5 is consistent with an economy that is growing at a healthy pace. We see encouraging signs of moderating prices, although the vast majority of purchasing managers seem to be facing higher prices.

This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.

This is the kind of thing that happens with economic data. In any given month, you have random variations in price trends Those random changes tend to offset each other.

There is the pessimistic notion that this is not going to go away and that's going to have a more lasting impact on driving habits and behavior, I suspect, than we've seen so far.

It's as good as it gets. You've got low inflation, minimal wage pressure, great productivity, booming growth and strong demand.

It's nothing short of incredible. It's not enough to send me scurrying to raise my forecast for next year, but it's pointing toward considerable momentum going into the new year. It gives me more confidence we're going to be able to maintain strong growth in the first half.

It's the early signs of some cooling in this super-heated market. Fewer people qualify for loans and sales at these prices.

It's going to take a lot more than one month to convince me we are in a worrisome trend.

Economic conditions look pretty grave right now. Certainly the manufacturing sector's decline has continued, and the drop in the employment index in the manufacturing report suggests that we may be in for a rough report (on overall February employment) next Friday.

The bond market is noticing that the capacity usage rate is rising with this additional production, and to some people's minds that gets us nearer to the day of Fed tightening.

It will take away from discretionary spending. It may not show up in the numbers for a few months, but it probably will cut into discretionary spending in the first part of this year.

The Fed is on hold indefinitely. It doesn't mean they won't make another move this year, but there is too little information to make another rate move in September.

The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.

In today's integrated global economy, given the liquid nature of capital flows, an individual trade balance doesn't mean so much. A lot of the anxiety is overblown.

In the past few years, money supply has moved inversely with stock price movements, and that's probably where the weakness has come from.

Claims continue hovering slightly above the 300,000 mark, implying strong, steady labor market conditions.

Generally speaking the November sales pace makes one wonder what is going on with housing starts.

I don't think there needs to be much concern about inflation right now. Apart from energy, very few of the broad categories of prices have changed much in their direction.

The dollar's still strong against the Chinese currency and China continues to expand its capacity to flood the world with consumer goods.

All of this, in terms of the FOMC becoming data dependent, comes as no surprise, and the new Fed chairman has an open agenda from which to work.

The last month of the quarter tells you a great deal about how much momentum there was in spending, and it doesn't look to me like there was that much.

The job picture is as bad as it's been in the past 18 months. I don't think we can find enough special qualifying factors to give us an increase in payrolls.