Derek Halpenny
Derek Halpenny
beyond easing given government interest maintain moving rate rhetoric seen zero
Given the rhetoric we've seen from the government today, the pressure, beyond moving away from quantitative easing will be very, very much on the BOJ to maintain a zero interest rate structure.
buying interest obvious rate
There is no more obvious way to play interest rate differentials than buying dollar/yen.
bit maybe rates subject tackle
One subject he may tackle is that maybe short-term rates need to be that bit higher.
helping interest march rate rise shift towards week
There has been a shift this week towards expectations of another U.S. interest rate rise in March -- the interest rate differential is there and it is helping the dollar.
event foreign guaranteed investors japanese nearly pick purchases yield
Yield is still very important for Japanese investors and it's nearly a guaranteed event that we'll see a pick up in purchases of foreign assets.
bank consensus definitely given japan low market past remains tested three war weeks
The consensus is that we are definitely going to war and it's probably two to three weeks away, no more than that. We can take it as a given that the Bank of Japan is in the market at or around 117, so that the low we have tested in the past at 116.80 remains intact.
argue bit certainly convinced cut further interest market monetary possibly rate seen since stability
We could argue possibly that we've seen a little bit of stability since we've had the interest rate cut out of the way. Certainly the market is not as convinced over the need for further substantial monetary tightening in the UK.
dollar loses rate towards turning
Towards the end of the year, we do see the dollar turning down as it loses its rate support.
appetite consensus creeping dollar employment given gradually higher limited original reading released report selling
Given that the employment report will be released on Friday, the appetite for selling the dollar may be limited especially with the consensus for non-farm payrolls gradually creeping higher from the original reading of 200,000.
changed knows market repeated shift timing
Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing.
continuity dollar interest means number objective rate stress
His number one objective will be to stress continuity. Continuity means more interest rate increases, so that means the dollar can keep going up.
becoming data date market push
The data are becoming ever more important. There's no justification in the data to date to warrant the market to push aggressively for 5.25 percent.
against commitment interest likely obvious policy selling shift strong thursday trade zero
Any shift in policy on Thursday from the BOJ is very likely to be accompanied by a strong commitment to maintaining zero interest rates. There is no trade more obvious than selling the yen against the dollar.
broader continued decline picture trade
The broader picture for the yen's decline is down to the continued deterioration in Japan's trade surplus.