Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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What we're seeing from Lehman is that market conditions improved through the summer, and that conditions are likely to continue improving. That's showing up in the earnings and in the detail of their reports.
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The conditions for the restarting of the bull market, or the start of a new bull market, which is how you should look at it, those conditions do not exist. Not yet, and that's why the markets went down yesterday despite what the Fed said,
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On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.
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Really they're companies with consistent price performance, ... In other words, it's better than the S&P and consistent earnings performance.
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I think we're going to edge our way higher but I don't think it's going to be a barn burning.
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the yield has worried investors. Some investors believe that it's a signal that a recession lies ahead. I believe that is a faulty interpretation.
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.
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I see business spending recovering, but not in telecommunications or telecommunications equipment.
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I think everybody knew this before, but this kind of takes it from the back page and moves it to the front page, ... He certainly carries a lot of weight in the market.