We're consolidating Friday's sharp move lower. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a pullback first. I wouldn't want to pile in until see $1.1759 level give away -- the low for 2004,
Sentiment is still dollar negative, and it will take some very decent equity news to turn this around. The market needs something to hang its hat on.
People want to buy Asia ahead of the G7 in case China does anything or there is a change of language. And if you want to buy Asia the yen is a liquid vehicle.
There is a good chance that the Fed won't raise rates on Sept. 20 but in doing so they are likely reaffirm that they will raise rates thereafter.
I think there's a whole wealth of information suggesting that things are on the mend... I don't think this is really going to disturb market consensus that the German economy will continue throughout the course of this year.
Japan doesn't like what is happening but they realize they are fighting a broad-based dollar decline.
People are confused about the United States' stance on the dollar. Until there is a deliberate shift in U.S. policy, the dollar's downtrend could continue.
People are confused about the United States' stance on the dollar, ... Until there is a deliberate shift in U.S. policy, the dollar's downtrend could continue.
People are just uncertain (on U.S. rates) and that sort of uncertainty will make it very difficult to get real directional moves in euro/dollar.
The fact that he is saying 'moderately augment' would appear to suggest that this will be a 25bp rather than a 50bp hike and that future rate hikes may also be limited.
There was a big knee-jerk reaction to the Moody's upgrade, but longer term, I don't think much has changed.
There's a general upside bias for the dollar right across the board, but that inclination is tempered a little when you come up against big events like the trade data.
The U.S. rate argument is unequivocal. Rates are going to keep on going up for the time being.
It's a bit dangerous to be aggressively selling the dollar at the moment. If we're still getting strong economic data it's not clear that U.S. rate increases are going to stop as soon as people think.
It's the first key Fed speech since the scale of the devastation became apparent so that could be quite important if he is used as a vehicle to express Fed policy.
If people are looking for excuses as to why the European Central Bank may feel their hands are a little tied in the short-term (on rates) they could use this, but I think there's a whole wealth of information suggesting that things are on the mend.
I don't think it changes anything too much, in terms of what he might do at the next meeting -- it's unclear but he's very much in the minority.
I don't think the Fed are going to signal any kind of pause in rate increases next week. There's no reason the dollar can't continue to benefit from the rate advantage.
The uncertainty about the German election just tends to put people off buying euro/dollar,
The French riots are also not helping the euro,
The market will not be confident in attacking the dollar until there is a much greater degree of confidence in calling the peak on Fed funds.
The market is looking at U.S. data and thinking, 'Is this a slowdown or a pause?' It is very unclear.
The market is correcting Friday's move (after payrolls). People are looking toward Greenspan and waiting to see how the U.S. will react after Labor Day.
