Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
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We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,
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If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.
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Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
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This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,
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Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need to ease again.
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The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,
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The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.