Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
comfort companies economy evidence feeling growth people profits results seeing start taking
People are taking some comfort in results and a feeling that the economy is getting better, but there's still some caution. We need to see more evidence of a sustainable recovery. We need companies to start seeing profits more through top-line growth than just cost-cutting measures.
change comfort economic economy fed lends sees shut slight spite
This lends some comfort to the situation. In spite of slight economic weakness, the Fed sees no need to change its strategy. It's also not going to shut down the economy too quickly.
bounce clear indication light moves week
With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
assumes fed future hikes inflation lays next pace people percentage pivotal quarter raise rates reports statement thinking
The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
creating earnings engine environment market
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
information taking work
There's really not a lot of information here to work with, and I think the market's taking a rest.
earnings economic news positive
Right now, we have this positive confluence of earnings and economic news that has been propelling the market.
chairman fed greenspan trying
Right now, the transparency we had with (former Chairman Alan) Greenspan is gone. We're trying to get some semblance of which way the Fed is going to go.
basis market points raising rates shock
Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
backdrop inflation leading market nice subdued
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
bigger economy history impact improvement interest lazy looking market oil prices rates seeing services shown stock tick
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
bet confidence economy employment federal jobs order raising rates reserve sliding stop trend
Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further.
certainly economic footing solid
We're certainly on solid footing on an economic front.
argue backward bit coming economy enthusiasm eventually evidence face maybe news slap today ugly woods
We have some very ugly numbers. You can argue that the ISM is still backward looking, and maybe even the jobless claims, but eventually we're going to need some evidence that the economy is improving. We had a lot of enthusiasm coming from earnings, but the news today is a little bit of a slap in the face that we're not out of the woods yet.