Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
aiming hike leave march open question whether
What they're going to be aiming for is to leave open the question of whether they hike on March 28.
bit found future good indication indicator industrial latest moderation movements possible ratio rose shipments straw wind
The ratio of inventories to shipments rose a bit in the latest month. We have found movements in this ratio to be a good indicator of industrial activity. Just a straw in the wind at this point, but a possible indication of future moderation in the sector.
data looks alternatives
While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.
data negative wealth
Biggest pent-up negative wealth effect you can see in the economic data going back to 1952.
april employment entered firmly job likely underlying
We will likely see some 'payback' for the blockbuster April report, which probably exaggerates the underlying job trend. (The latest) ISM index confirms that manufacturing employment has firmly entered contraction territory.
available exhausting otherwise pool unemployed
We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers.
clear determined message quite
The message is pretty clear here: they are quite determined to keep going.
cannot clear consumer continue debt disposable form grow households income lengthy maybe percent period save spending subdued sure violent
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
committing driving increases market rate rise roof saying stock themselves third trying
They want to see how these first two rate increases go first. They are trying to straddle between not committing themselves to a third rate rise and not driving the stock market through the roof by saying they're done.
change close either fed interest
nothing suggests that the Fed is close to a change in interest rates, in either direction.
certainly consumer numbers
The consumer numbers are certainly more important than normal.
data gone
I've gone from being a data maven to a weatherman, ... Just to think that before today, I didn't know what an 'eye-wall replacement cycle' was.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind. It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind, ... It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.