Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
bit found future good indication indicator industrial latest moderation movements possible ratio rose shipments straw wind
The ratio of inventories to shipments rose a bit in the latest month. We have found movements in this ratio to be a good indicator of industrial activity. Just a straw in the wind at this point, but a possible indication of future moderation in the sector.
data looks alternatives
While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.
data negative wealth
Biggest pent-up negative wealth effect you can see in the economic data going back to 1952.
aiming hike leave march open question whether
What they're going to be aiming for is to leave open the question of whether they hike on March 28.
cut might start though
What will be nice, though it's unimaginable right now, is to start forecasting when they might be able to cut rates.
available business charges gross hour matters net output overall per sector worked
What matters for our well-being is the net output -- remember, depreciation charges are not available for consumption -- per person in the overall economy, not the gross output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector alone,
finances fiscal household monetary namely plausible remain sector spending stimulus whose
There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,
believe bubble consumer dry equity gains home households housing large likely market recent share spending supplement ultimately
We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.
believe continue drivers growth less turning underlying
We continue to believe that the underlying drivers of productivity growth are turning less favorable,
available exhausting otherwise pool unemployed
We are exhausting the pool of the unemployed and of otherwise available workers.
april employment entered firmly job likely underlying
We will likely see some 'payback' for the blockbuster April report, which probably exaggerates the underlying job trend. (The latest) ISM index confirms that manufacturing employment has firmly entered contraction territory.
adjustment beginning consumer debt economy growth household means next normal rate rather savings spending temporary
Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.