Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
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The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.
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The real shocker is that there was a build of natural gas at this time of year.
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We're likely to see prices continue to trend upward. The biggest potential to push prices down is going to be an increase in supply, but right now supplies look pretty fixed.
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We're not even in the peak driving season. Imagine what it'll be like the Fourth of July weekend, or even Memorial Day.
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There is justification for concern about natural gas prices at these levels. Prices now are essentially twice what they were last winter. That's likely to squeeze consumers.
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There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.
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What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.
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With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.
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We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.
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We're looking at some positive expansion, solid growth in jobs and in general economic growth, and that's something we see continuing.
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Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.
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Truth be told, by the government's own study, this would have a minimal impact on price, decades in the future.