Jason Schenker Quotations

Whether we hit it today or next week, I don't really think hitting $50 is going to give us a downturn.

What we're seeing is a lot stronger numbers than were anticipated, also with an upward revision in August and July. All of this bodes well for the economy and shows perhaps the economy was not as severely affected by the hurricanes as initially anticipated.

With the year-on-year deficit in gasoline and with economic growth it is hard to be bearish about energy in the short or medium term. The manufacturing and retail numbers, the regional and national numbers, wherever you look they are positive. The same goes for overseas.

We're seeing range trading in all of the energy contracts. The big question is whether this is the bottom or if we will go lower. In the short-term the inventory numbers and the weather will determine what we do.

There are nice, healthy builds across the board, even in distillates. Barring a major geopolitical disruption, or things changing with OPEC, there will be pressure to the downside.

The crack spread of gasoline has collapsed, and only an escalation of Iranian tensions could buttress crude at this level.

We're looking at some positive expansion, solid growth in jobs and in general economic growth, and that's something we see continuing.

On a national average, we could hit $3.25 at the pump easily, potentially even by this weekend, ... This is going to cut into consumer demand.

mitigated some of the upward pressure on crude oil prices.

Next week is a huge week for data, and it is likely to show continued economic growth and inflation well under control.

People waiting for rates to fall have been squeezed out of the market. We're not going to see housing sales plummet, but we will see sales moderate.

Potentially, Katrina could signal the death knell of the SUV in as much as consumers are going to find themselves once burned, twice shy to buy such vehicles,

Near-term energy price spikes, ubiquitous gasoline lines and fear of shortages have exposed the soft underbelly of the U.S. energy complex,

One of the biggest hurricanes ever is headed for the heart of America's refining capacity. Prices will hit new records if we get reports of flooding and other destruction once the storm passes.

If the rise in imports and utilization manifest this week continues next week, it could apply some downward pressure. Of course, any decline in petroleum prices would be predicated on the notion that the Iranian geopolitical situation remains relatively quiet.

If this leads to the shut-off of Iranian oil, I think it would probably mean we've got bigger problems than the price of oil. But if we end up with a 1970s-style oil embargo, we could see prices go markedly higher into uncharted territory.

Given OPEC's decision to keep quotas unchanged, Iranian guarantees of oil supply and U.S. statements excluding the possibility of oil sanctions, crude is poised to fall next week.

If we were able to reach a 'comfortable unease' on the Iranian situation, I think we'd see prices drop into the low $50s.

If the inversion is to persist or deepen, then it may be interpreted as a real bear sign.

If it remains this close to 2 percent, then I think economically speaking, we're sitting pretty. I don't think this changes what the Fed does in May. I think another rate hike is likely then. But I think it stems the talk of rates rising as high as 5.25 percent, at least for now.

He is more likely to focus on geopolitical and security issues. But he might also talk about the job and housing markets.

I think it is easily conceivable that we could see crude futures hit $70 this week.

OPEC's statements and quota decision announced at the beginning of next week could exert a somewhat bearish impact on prices.

OPEC is likely to be a critical event next week. A cut in production, however, seems quite unlikely despite slower fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth out today and a well-supplied market. The specter of oil supply disruption haunts energy markets.

Regardless of how large the draws are expected to be, especially in gasoline, seeing the actual numbers will be a shock.

Supplies are pretty lush. Once this report is digested we should see a big decline in prices. The geopolitical concern and economic growth are still there in the background supporting prices.

Such a strong report by a financial institution has to help others in the same sector. Rates have been rising but gradually, which gives some banks opportunity to adjust.

Markets were caught off-guard by a blow-out trade deficit, ... This could affect growth.

Massive inventory declines in crude oil are part of a three-month trend, heating oil prices continue their relentless rise, and the supply disruption premium is in full effect. This may only be the beginning; the winter oil bull run has begun.

It is conceivable that we could see $3 this summer.

That's a very volatile category. We can't necessarily count on the increase we've seen in that category to continue the rest of the year.

We have to wait for the refineries to come back on line, which will take a couple weeks. We're hearing a lot about the importance of getting the power going, but that isn't the only problem we will have reopening the refineries. Homes throughout the region are destroyed and workers need someplace to live.

Typically this time of year, we seek to build inventories. This is going to put us behind the eight ball going into the winter.

We're likely to see prices continue to trend upward. The biggest potential to push prices down is going to be an increase in supply, but right now supplies look pretty fixed.

We're not even in the peak driving season. Imagine what it'll be like the Fourth of July weekend, or even Memorial Day.

There is justification for concern about natural gas prices at these levels. Prices now are essentially twice what they were last winter. That's likely to squeeze consumers.

The real shocker is that there was a build of natural gas at this time of year.

Truth be told, by the government's own study, this would have a minimal impact on price, decades in the future.

The government's offer of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has mitigated some of the upward price pressure on crude oil. The problems with gasoline and natural gas may not be helped even if the SPR is tapped. If refineries are offline and can't run the extra oil, it will make no difference.

There is no strategic government reserve of natural gas or refined products, and right now the biggest concerns in the marketplace are for products.

This warm weather is lowering demand for natural gas and heating oil. What the market does is all in the hands of the weatherman.

We've recently seen a series of minor conflagrations in Nigeria, which are resolved swiftly. The headlines raise awareness in the market but the price rises soon fade.

With gasoline futures at records a nationwide average of $3 at the pump is likely in the near-term.

There have been attempts this year to solve the bottleneck in the refinery part of the energy equation. That is still not resolved.

At this point, at these prices we're not likely to see a cut. Politically that is not feasible.

Concerns about the economy have tipped the 10-year down. Obviously if rates rise, we should see some slowing, but we don't anticipate any type of collapse by any means.

Energy shares took a hit today as crude prices eased. The drag in energy shares, combined with end-of-year low volume, is bringing volatility to the stock markets.

The trajectory of the storm is changing and been moved closer to production but it is still no Ivan at this point.

Is inflation dead? Not yet. If this moderating of inflationary pressures were to appear in the other reports, it could bode well for the economy.

The worst possible outcome for the stock market is that it takes a month to decide the election,

The saber-rattling on both sides of the table has led to some pricing in of risk, but it's quite conceivable we could see prices go back to $60, even the high $50s, if this dispute reaches a resolution or even a stalemate.

The service sector performed well, with new orders rising, prices declining and employment inching up.

The stock market is reacting to the strong earnings reports we've seen earlier today. But sooner or later, companies may have to start passing through the increase in energy costs or be hurt by it.

The sky isn't falling, just new non-defense aircraft orders.

The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.

The supply disruption premium has overwhelmed fundamental physical supply in the marketplace as issue number one.

Prices went a lot higher than most of us expected a year ago. The factors that caused prices to surge aren't likely to go away next year. The volatility of the market may even increase.

Prices are being held up by worries about gasoline.

People are waiting for the shoe to drop. Which shoe it is doesn't matter. They just want it to be done.

After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.

A couple of weeks ago we saw prices were moving toward $70 again. This is a very volatile marketplace but I think on the whole we are likely to see the average price this year higher than last year.

Oil prices fell through the first half of last month, but commodity prices are still somewhat elevated and we're likely to see energy bounce back in the March report.

The month-over-month increase at 0.4 percent was the swiftest rate since January 2005. The implication is that core inflation may be rising.

Despite the news of escalation, I think the market does not believe it's going to have a real impact on supplies.

Despite high energy prices, consumer spending will hold up relatively well. Consumer behavior is not changing a lot.

The call to establish more refineries is likely to be sounded again.

You've got (U.S.) supplies coming from a lot of places: more imports, more refinery capacity and more production from the Gulf of Mexico, and that's pulling down prices in the short term.

This is a situation where you've got a lot of supply on hand, leading to a drop in prices.

They're supplying the market the best they can, but they have very little impact on global refinery capacity and very little impact on geopolitical events.

American drivers have the capacity to handle higher fuel costs. With the economy in good shape, it is tough to believe people will stop driving because of an extra 50 or 75 cents per gallon.

The most disconcerting part of the PPI report today was the rate of final core producer price pressures in January.

A correction seems likely if we don't see a further intensifying of the geopolitical crisis. There will have to be further headlines for prices to move higher.

I totally expect to see $50 a barrel, at least in a spike to that level, at some point in the near future. We've been in an upward trend for several years, and I really don't see any indication of a reversal of that trend. $50 a barrel is a completely rational expectation.

It is typical to see a slight drop in utilization in the first week of the year. This slight drop, coupled with imports, could allow for a slight crude-inventory build.

It's tough to blame (OPEC) for higher oil prices. I think they're doing what they can.

The bigger question is does OPEC have excess capacity that it can tap into in the longer-term, ... It appears they're unlikely to raise their quotas, and that's not going to assuage market concerns about their capacity.

Strong continued gross domestic product growth and solid employment gains should fuel further home sales and may mitigate some of the slowing engendered by higher interest rates.

Strong levels of unfilled orders imply a strong U.S. economy and implicitly indicate more manufacturing in the pipelines. Clearly, the industrial sector is likely to remain strong in the near- and medium-term.

The retail sales report was the most significant piece of data we had in weeks and that certainly had the stock market going. It points to a solid first quarter, with earnings growth.

After the PPI bounced last week due to higher energy costs, there is a big risk of the CPI following suit next week. There is significant upside risk there.

A further deterioration of the situation in Nigeria, or escalation of nuclear brinkmanship with the Iranians, could push the (New York) price of crude further to 70 dollars.

The ISM service survey joins a number of economic indicators that have shown robust economic resilience in the wake of Katrina and Rita,

If prices remain above US$60, it will be tough for OPEC to justify a production cut.

If prices remain above 60 dollars, it will be tough for OPEC to justify a production cut.

I look at the futures curves, and they're shifting up; we're looking at, a year from now, the price being $40 a barrel. Oil won't be at $30 any more -- that's gone.

In the short run, people's consumption is essentially fixed for gasoline. The biggest evidence of this is despite the fact we've got prices at $3, $4 or $5 a gallon, we've got consumers lining up to pay for it.

In the near term, the overall health of inventories is likely to be important.

In terms of expectations, the crude build was a bit of a surprise. In theory, it should be mildly more bearish but right now with distillates it is the cold weather.

In terms of expectations, the crude build was a bit of a surprise.

In fact, there is still quite a bit of inflationary pressure that producers need to mitigate to remain profitable.

If there were a lot of homes in inventory, we could anticipate a bubble bursting, but there isn't,

Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.

If energy price increases do not prove to be a transitory blip, inflationary fears are likely to increase and Fed hikes are likely to continue,

I don't think the energy prices that have only gone up since this report are some transitory aberration,

You could still see some downward price moves if the Iranian situation just fades from view. If it fades from the headlines you could see oil prices move down several dollars.

The manufacturing sector seems to be on a very solid footing.

The Iran situation will stay in the background until early March when both the IAEA and OPEC meet.

The Iranian situation appears to be getting worse.

The employment index, however, declined. This could bode ill for October's payrolls.

Although consumers care about headline inflation, it's not the Fed's priority. The Fed has its eye on the core.