Jay Bryson Quotations

The only thing that the Fed can do to correct the current- account imbalance is to slow the U.S. economy. If you are adding up reasons for why the Fed will keep on tightening, the current-account deficit is on that list.

The markets are reacting to the shock of seeing a jump in import prices. It raises concerns about inflationary pressures, and higher interest rates down the road.

People tend to look at core to get a look at overall strength and weakness of the economy,

We should see a big increase in oil imports and, given the overall robust demand in the U.S., we are also going to see higher non-oil imports. Over the next few quarters, the deficit is going to get bigger.

When that happens, the dollar will begin to depreciate.

That seems like a tall feat right now.

It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.

I would agree that the risk of recession is greater today than it was a month ago. I can certainly think of how we can get to recession.

If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.

I guess if there's any surprise it's that I would have thought exports would have grown a little more than they did. But in the second quarter everyone else had weaker economies, although more recent signs are that things abroad are picking up. So maybe June was too soon to look for an increase.