Jim Paulsen
Jim Paulsen
bull globe huge looking market markets outside sitting states thinking united united-states wherever
When I look around the globe outside the United States I see nothing but a huge bull market going on wherever you look. We're sitting here in the United States and looking at flattish markets and thinking things are not so good.
cycle earnings eight ends gives looking maybe pattern rest starts terrible
It gives you the sense that maybe this earnings cycle is going to be like the rest, where it starts out like it's going to be terrible and it ends up looking good, ... That's been the pattern for eight quarters.
alert rallying terror
I think that (the terror alert rumor) was most of this ... it's already rallying back.
event higher impact initially net oil people
On net this is not going to be a big event economically. People initially went to the big impact it was going to have, all predicated on the idea that oil was going to go a lot higher (than it has).
central dramatic entire front global growth impact profit reasons recovery remained slowing strong trends
One of the central characteristics of this entire global recovery is the outsized impact of these new economies. That's one of the reasons why growth has remained strong in the U.S. and profit trends have been remained positive, so if there is any inkling that we are at the front end of slowing that down, that's going to make a dramatic difference.
certainly fan fear fed forward inflation longer people watch
That certainly is going to fan a little inflation fear here, and going forward it will at least keep people on the watch a little longer on the idea that the Fed is going to keep tightening.
fed raised seemingly thus yields
Thus far, the Fed seemingly has no bite. Normally, when the Fed has raised short-term rates, long-term yields have also risen. Not this time.
causes economy fed hinges whether
It all hinges on whether the Fed tightening slows the economy and causes a recession.
absorb ahead assessment continue economy higher investors jobs might next pause rise solid stocks week
We might see a little pause for assessment on stocks next week ahead of the jobs report. From now on, stocks will rise only if investors continue to believe, just like the Fed, that the economy is solid and may absorb higher rates.
knew
Even at the open, we knew it was just going to be Libby, and if nothing else, at least the uncertainty is gone.
consistent fairly fed number price running theme tied
There's a fairly consistent theme running through all of the markets, which is tied to the idea that the Fed is nearing the end of the tightening cycle. It was the combo that the Fed's done and the import price number was down.
cheaper continued earnings faster growing stock
Earnings have been growing faster than stock prices. We've continued to have a cheaper and cheaper market.
bond fact found good news pause run seem short stock taking tough yields
Yields seem to have found a high. Taking bond yields up every day has been a tough one for the stock market, and the fact it would pause is good news at least in short run for stocks.
bit earnings reports
What little earnings reports we have had have been a little bit more disappointing than outperforming, for the most part, so that's weighing.