Joel Naroff Quotations

There are plenty of bubbles around the country that are losing air rapidly and more are likely to follow. But so far there is no generalized collapse in the market.

The extent of the drop seems overdone, ... I would not be surprised if home sales rebound, though the days of record sales levels may be behind us.

If they cut by 50 basis points, we may also see some movement down in the rest of the yield curve, ... If they cut by 25 basis points, I don't think it shows up in the rest of the curve.

Businesses are running up against capacity constraints and have no choice but to hire, and that may bid up wages. Productivity is decelerating and inflation pressures keep creeping up.

Basically, the new boss has the same worries as the old boss. For the markets, this cannot be good news.

Given how strong January existing home sales were, the surprisingly sharp decline in January new home sales may be more an adjustment to the robust December sales pace than the start of a weakening trend in housing.

There is an ever-growing number of homes on the market, and while the overhang is not great at the current selling pace, it could become a problem if we trend back toward more sustainable levels,

It doesn't indicate that households are going to dramatically start cutting back spending, but this does tells us that consumption, at least in this quarter, isn't going to be that great,

Manufacturers are not fools, and they looked out over the economy and saw that economic activity had slowed dramatically, ... Not wanting to carry inventories, they slashed production and workers. They acted correctly, but the downward spiral has been set in motion.

Wholesale prices are going nowhere. We don't have deflation, but clearly there is no reason to expect prices to jump.

The data for the second quarter seem to point to a solid rebound in growth, ... That should generate improvement in profits, and hopefully the available funds will be spent on investment.

We are starting to get early estimates of the impacts of Katrina and they are ugly.

There are seminal points in economies, and they're reached rarely, ... We reached one in the 1990s, and we will not go back to an economy that bears any resemblance to the one before.

With consumers not spending, is it any surprise that the manufacturing sector has stumbled?

The trade deficit, if you can still use the term deficit to describe the GDP of a small country, just keeps getting wider. This is the Energizer bunny on steroids as it keeps growing and growing and growing.

The sharp rise in input costs can only further pressure earnings in those sectors where there is limited pricing power, which is still most of the economy.

Some people are being turned off by the high house prices and they just can't pull the trigger. Without question that's causing some people to think twice about buying.

Despite the faltering confidence numbers, consumption remains strong, and that is all that really matters,

You need to help the cash flow to businesses, just to make them a little better off.

They're going to say they're carefully watching the issues in the equity markets and are prepared to act if necessary, but right now the risks remain balanced,

Forget the decline from the June pace. What is important is the level of activity, and that is extraordinarily high, ... This market is showing no sign of weakness. With mortgage rates so low, it is no wonder that people are still out there buying homes. And with demand strong, construction is not going to fail.

Consumers may have throttled back a touch in February, but given the weather and all they had spent the previous few months, we cannot conclude that consumption is faltering.

The numbers we're getting all indicate that the economy has maintained a large amount of momentum and that's obviously a concern to the Fed and will likely force their hand.

Not even Mother Nature can slow the housing market.

Slowly, but inexorably, inflationary pressures are building across the economy.

The Fed wants to see results, and this report didn't give it to them, ... It looks right now as if the Fed will take out some extra insurance on June 25.

If people are willing to buy big-ticket items, the message they are sending is that they still have confidence about the future,

If the markets continue to firm in September and confidence does rebound, then we will have dodged the bullet, ... But the failure of confidence to remain at least near July's levels raises some questions as to the true condition of the economy.

Housing is the one key sector that is supposed to be interest-rate sensitive, but at least so far, rates have not risen enough to cause a major retrenchment.

The huge rebound in orders shows that, not only did the economy not collapse in June, but it is actually moving ahead at a decent clip,

The huge increases at apparel and general merchandise stores are eye-opening. You would think people had nothing to do but get to the malls.

The economy is becoming a well oiled machine.

The fundamental economy is still solid, and the things that drive consumer spending are still solid,

The change was minimal and does not affect the general impression that the economy was in fine shape heading into the summer.