Josh Stiles Quotations

We still need to keep the inflation pressures from building or there will be a problem in the future.

We're getting all this new supply later in the week and people are asking whether they really want to buy it at these levels.

There are fears the data will be strong and Greenspan will lay the groundwork for tightening. In that environment, how do you bring in buyers?

I would be interested in what those Fed members who are concerned about longer-term risks to the economy say in terms of any damage from higher energy prices and commodity prices.

He's been wrong about what's happening with inflation for two years. He's more focused on structural disinflation forces than he is on the cyclical inflationary forces from excessive accommodation.

He didn't say enough on the permanent tax cuts and that's why the dollar is higher and (U.S.) bonds are higher.

I think (the GDP and ECI figures) will tell the market that the economy is not cooling much and that wage pressures are building.

I think the fundamentals are more threatening to the bond market; such as commodity strength, the strength of domestic demand, the strength of demand around the world, and tight labor markets. So, there are plenty of things for the bond market to get worried about.

It feels like the slide is tapering off,

It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here,

We don't know enough about him to know whether there might be a surprise attack so there is some caution. But overall, the 10-year yield has been in a range of 4 5/8 to 4 /12 for weeks and today, we're right in the middle of that range.

We should still have a pretty good quarter for consumer spending. January retail sales, excluding autos, were very strong.

We don't look at this number and say it's the end of manufacturing strength. Still, it hasn't hurt the bond market.

We saw moderation in the indices on prices paid, employment, and six-month business conditions outlook. That offset the impact of the headline number.

is going to hurt the bond market more.

The view is that the market could withstand a 25 basis point rate hike.

Strength in productivity is one main reason (that is) keeping inflation low, ... It has shifted the focus back to the economy - maybe the economy can grow at such strength without inflation.

The bottom line is, agencies will maintain their highest credit rating. Agencies are looking like pretty good value.

This is always a difficult number for the market to deal with.

A lot of Friday's action was due to short-covering after the labor report looked weaker than people had expected. But the upcoming supply forces people to question whether they really want to endorse these lower yield levels.

There's concern for how the stock market has done recently. I do think bond traders have their eye on the stock market.

It really comes down to the fact that the Fed is saying demand is excessive, ... Until they see enough cooling (of the economy) there's potential for more rate hikes.

It looks like it may be fairly lacking in volatility for the next few days, (with yields) struggling around six percent, ... But I think that some of the bigger players are going to be selling when the bond dips below 6 percent, because they see down the road that the Fed's going to be tested again and again about the imbalances in the economy which haven't gone away.

Consumer sentiment made an extraordinary month-to-month gain and really sparked the selling. The market has come a long way and short-term speculators are taking some profits.

The new weakness, which is probably related to the hurricane and oil, definitely set in. But this number was a classic dilemma for the market, because the prices paid really rocketed higher.

In a short-term perspective, the market has found a top and needs to consolidate.

If the recovery turns out to be even stronger than the market currently thinks, then we'll see some more selling, but we have some cushion (for recovery) built into prices now.

I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.

The initial excitement wore off. People were positioned for it,

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario.

The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory.

The Chicago PMI sent us back to near the lows, though we had seen the bond market handling some heavy selling before then,

The economic numbers didn't really have an affect on the (bond) market, ... Housing starts were strong, but . . . the market was already reaching support in the softer stock market and softer manufacturing numbers.

The market took the report in context -- which is that it is often distorted by aircraft orders. It didn't really ignite the bond bulls that the headline number was down so much.

The market's starting to look further ahead. There seems to be the sentiment that the economy will cool and the Fed (once it hikes interest rates later this month) will be done.