I don't put a lot of faith in the month-to-month swings in the trade data, but we had expected a modest widening in the gap. This narrowing will feed into a little bit more positive reading to second-quarter GDP.
Given some of the strong data we've seen lately, it's not surprising he's bullish on the economy. There's not a lot of new news in this.
Our view is very optimistic. We believe that the tight yield curve is the result of the Fed's continued tightening. We are expecting economic growth of 4% much of this year. That is far from a recession.
The auction came off pretty much as advertised -- it was good and strong.
I think were just having a little short-covering ahead of the weekend. We often see a bit of bottom-fishing when the yield is around 4.5%.
Productivity still remains really solid, and one of the hallmarks of this whole expansion. If we can hang on to that I think the perception of where we're going in the market could change dramatically.
Productivity, so far, has really enabled the economy to grow at a more rapid pace than normal without generating any kind of substantial increase in wage pressures.
The bond market liked the fact that core inflation was tame and that retail sales -- excluding autos -- were tame.
The post-auction gains were used as a selling opportunity.
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