Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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The demand for the 'luxury look' is back. Americans want to be fashionable and elegantly dressed but that doesn't mean they want to go broke in the process, ... Consumers know that they can get that well-dressed look for an affordable price, and that's why the specialty apparel chains like Gap ( GPS : Research , Estimates ) and Ann Taylor ( ANN : Research , Estimates ) are performing well.
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We were dealing with a very cautious, very careful consumer who was not really inspired to buy anything because there wasn't anything worth buying.
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There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
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The outlook is for a muted third quarter, and also fourth quarter. It's not getting any worse in our opinion. We believe that consumer spending has essentially bottomed out. That does not mean consumers are ready to go on a spending spree or a buying binge. Things are likely to remain at their current level.
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With Wal-Mart it's still a wait-and watch situation, but Target's news is a little worse. The problem with Target is that its department stores are underperforming.
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Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal. There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.
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Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal, ... There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions because they know that the support of another tax rebate or tax reduction is unlikely. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.
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The only way to grow in the retail business is to add yet another 100 stores, another 600 stores. Then someone else will see that you are successful. And that other fellow will do the same. And for a while it is fine, until suddenly there are more stores than the community needs.
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The problem with Target is a problem facing every retailer. The price of gas is coming down, but home heating oil is going to be a major problem, ... A lot of consumers are worried.
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There are a lot of companies out there whose essential business operating concept is past its prime and therefore their comparable sales are on a gradual decline.
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We found out, from talking to consumers and store operators all over the country, that low-dollar items went very fast. Forget about high-end items.
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What we are suffering from is the slide from the exuberant high we had a year ago at a level that was completely unsustainable, ... I will also tell you retailers are going to be up against far more favorable numbers, easier numbers.