Larry Wachtel Quotations

We remain in a stimulus vacuum and the underlying motif this week will be the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

When we arrive on Monday, we may or may not know the full extent of Hurricane Rita. The stock market can attempt to discount what is discernible, but when it comes to acts of nature, it can only make assumptions.

The popular indexes have managed to reach 4-year highs, while small and midsize indexes flirt with all-time highs. The lack of sustainability is likely due to the senior citizen status of the bull market, now in its 41st month. The restless rotation is keeping hope alive with money shifting from energy stocks to home building to technology to financials.

The popular indexes have managed to reach 4 1/2-year highs, while small and midsize indexes flirt with all-time highs. The lack of sustainability is likely due to the senior citizen status of the bull market, now in its 41st month. The restless rotation is keeping hope alive with money shifting from energy stocks to home building to technology to financials.

We're completing the first quarter now, but we're still getting data from the fourth quarter. This is old news. I fail to see what relevance this will have for the market today.

Low-end consumers, the ones that spend every penny of their paycheck, are really hurting with these gasoline prices.

Second quarter is going to be excellent. Remember when the first quarter was reported in April, we had a 1,000-point gain in the Dow, and that was only a 10-percent (earnings) gain.

So far the earnings season is kind of a mixed bag. It's not the catalyst that everyone was expecting it to be. Nokia was disappointing, Apple was positive and Citigroup is in the middle. We're still waiting for IBM,

Now, this day prior to the long weekend, I don't think we'll have the cavalry charge at the close today. But I think this has legs. I think it could drive forward to, say, Dow 8500.

Negative guidance from Intel kicked off a new selling wave in beleaguered technology, while the February job figures turned out to be strong enough to raise some doubts about aggressive Federal Reserve ease.

Obviously, companies split when the stock price has gotten beyond the pocketbook of the average investor.

People will move along at an unhurried pace. No one is rushing to get in, and yet there are bargains around, so we're in this range-bound atmosphere.

On Friday, we had a ratio of 12 to 1 of losers to winners. That's the worst performance since 1997. We also had over 3,000 declining issues. This shows real weakness.

If we get any kind of word that we can avert military action, avoid a war, certainly that would be helpful.

I don't know that money managers controlling billions of dollars are going to make major choices based on this minor development,

Basically, the (people on the) sidelines are coming in. The economic signals are just too strong to ignore.

I'm amazed at how well the market has held. This sideways action shows a very strong market.

If I was doing some bargain-hunting in blue chips, those are two that I would go after.

Gimme a break, ... Where do we go from there?

If it's just one,' that's the whole premise. That this is not the first in a series, this one isolated incident and then we're on to better things. This is a miscalculation.

If the consumer starts to cave in, the 'double dip' aura will come back. I think that (the Consumer Credit report) is what created this final selling.

If the Fed is seeking to slow the economy down that's always the conundrum,

If the Fed even hints that it will stop raising rates, that would be a major catalyst to move the market higher.

Today bonds rallied because of the softer new home sales. Yesterday, bonds fell because the purchasing managers report was too strong. Now we go to Friday and the non-farm payrolls, which is the main part of the economic reporting cycle, and if that number comes in too strong, the bonds get whacked again -- and so do the stocks.

Today bonds rallied because of the softer new home sales, ... Yesterday, bonds fell because the purchasing managers report was too strong. Now we go to Friday and the non-farm payrolls, which is the main part of the economic reporting cycle, and if that number comes in too strong, the bonds get whacked again -- and so do the stocks.

we may have gotten overbought a little. We are probably going to see a pullback in the next few days.

I also like Tandy ( TAN : Research , Estimates ). They sell all the electronic gear that is so exciting on the dip.

I think the market has done quite well in what is supposed to be the worst month of the year, but at some point you're going to run into an overbought condition,

I think the Dow is going to be under a little bit of short-term pressure, particularly with technology under a bit of a cloud. But I see it as a temporary situation.

Last minute tax-loss selling, that's why they stay open on the day before New Year's, so there might be some excitement, but it's just a beginning phase.

I think we're in the twilight zone. You have the confessional period followed by the summer doldrums, so there really isn't anything that's going to spur it to the upside.

It is a media event and it will be a big deal, but I don't think that the money managers will go rushing into stocks just simply because we got to Dow 10,000,

Rising rates won't hurt the new techies, but they might impact the 'old economy' customers.

Suddenly these inflation figures have a psychological impact.

It doesn't tell you anything in terms of the fundamentals. I think there will be a bet made tomorrow (Tuesday) and early Wednesday that the Fed goes 50 basis points (a half-percentage point). If it pays off, I think there will be a trading flurry.

The abbreviated week will bring with it a rash of economic numbers, culminating in the May job figures on Friday. The Street would like to see some signs of a slowing economic pace so as to assuage the inflation junkies on the Federal Reserve.

We are in a bit of a vacuum with the long three-day weekend coming up. Tomorrow will be a vacuum kind of day.

When you see this kind of quick move, that's a mechanical sell program from one of the brokerages.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) we get numbers on industrial production and housing and big reports from Intel, Coke, Johnson & Johnson -- maybe that can turn us around.

There are many facets to the market. One facet has been that money managers have been willing to dip their toe in the water.

We've been down for six weeks on the S&P 500, and if you stretch a rubber band enough, it's going to snap back, ... The question is 'is this a head fake or will it continue?'

We have good earnings today, but there's just too much good economic news. We're increasing the likelihood of a rate hike in June. The data are coming in stronger than expected, so the Street is expecting another hike. The better the news, the more likely the Fed will tighten. It's a strange phenomenon that good news can be bad news.

The only thing that would shake me would be a fundamental change, if rates would rise dramatically to 7 percent, if the profit margin contraction continued, if the love affair by the public with mutual funds would cool off. The fact that the Dow is fluctuating more than it used to doesn't turn me on or turn me off.

The only thing that was positive today was that there was nothing negative, especially no lousy economic reports that we've had over the last four trading days. The summer doldrums have not appeared so far.

Translated, the Microsoft ruling was a major event, but it was so predictable as to have little immediate impact.

...There is no scientific way of determining where the Nasdaq bottom is...the money is flowing into safer havens.

We had a good day with surprising strength, but I need to see a follow-through tomorrow to believe it will stick.

We knew deep down there was some good news in the bottom line, but we were beginning to have our doubts.

What does Buffett know? He's only worth $18 billion. I think he has warned of this in the past. And, indeed, he's right on blue chips There has been a gravitation toward the cyclical stocks and away from the blue chips.

We're going through this pre-announcement period where all the gloom and all the doom and all the negative statements are being made.

We say it again and again, but it's true that everything depends on the consumer, since around 70% of our economy is based around consumer spending.

Earnings statements will make or break the market this week. I'll be watching the reports coming from some of the technology names, because I think that sector may lead the way this year.

Everything continues to revolve around oil after we got licked pretty good yesterday. Everything is a knee-jerk reaction now.

Attention will be focused on the statement that follows the 2:15 p.m. ET rate announcement, as it will give us a better indication on the Fed's future course of action. Noteworthy is that the tendency has been for the market to rally ahead of the Fed meeting and to sell-on-the-news after the announcement, ... While the market is advancing, it is on light volume due to this being a Monday in the slow month of August in front of tomorrow's economic policy uncertainty.

At this point, the task of the component suppliers is to find enough chips to meet the demand, ... But there's always the psychological turning point as to when you begin to slow the demand down. I think that's the problem. I think it's been overdone, and I think the chip stocks are very good buys here.

Cyclical stocks are helping the Dow today. Morgan Stanley upgraded some chemical stocks and that's giving cyclical stocks -- paper, chemicals -- a boost.

Cyclical stocks are helping the Dow today, ... Morgan Stanley upgraded some chemical stocks and that's giving cyclical stocks -- paper, chemicals -- a boost.

Even if Bush were to win, there's no mandate to do any radical legislation.

There's nothing really to sink your teeth into next week, except for the possibility of a Santa Claus rally.

The traders wanted 75 basis points (three-quarter percentage point) so they sold on the news. After the traders sold, investors stepped up to the plate (to sell).

The selling last week was so extreme, there had to be a snap back.

Tech is suffering from one big inventory overhang. It's going to take a long time to work through that.

So there's nothing to offset the economic news and stocks are muddling along. Until we get some surety about the economy or corporate earnings, we'll continue to have this drifting, dismal kind of day.

so you can see how narrow (the rally) really is.

Once we get to April and the first quarter earnings are reported -- and I think they're going to be pretty good -- (that) could be helpful. I doubt if you'll get anything out of the Fed meeting.

A quarter-point rate hike would send a message of steady as she goes.

The bull market only ends on a fundamental reason. It ends if inflation rises and rates rise. It ends if profits dive. It doesn't end because the Dow goes down on a random day based on program trading.

This is a way to dip your toe in the water without getting into deep vulnerability, so you're participating in the blue chips.

This is the first day of the month, you may have seen some end-of-the-month portfolio selling dissipating, ... And this is the day that Microsoft is distributing $33 billion in cash, so there is some anticipation of that finding its way back to the market.

This is par for the course. All you've got to do is breath heavy and you get the Dow plus or minus 90 points.

The weakness from Friday carried forward to the international markets and we could get a horrific open here today. The concerns stem from the rising rates structure and what we got on Friday was something of a good news, bad news syndrome.

They were destined to be disappointing. One, the weather was against you and we have a cautious consumer.

A lot of the results yesterday have been a little disappointing. Microsoft had a decent quarter but was a little below expectations. It was the same with both Amazon and Coke.

A lot of the market is beginning to resist the downside because it's already been hurt so badly. That's what I think will be the primary factor next week.

There were a couple of one-shot deals in the PPI -- auto prices and tobacco prices. If you took those two items out, the core rate was up 0.1. That's the reason why the markets have come back a little. I've analyzed the numbers and realized that this is not inflation out of control.

There's a cautious backdrop (on Wall Street). We're heading to that glide path toward the Fed meeting. I think there has been a gravitation toward the cyclical stocks and away from the blue chips. And I think we'll continue to see movements into the papers and the metals.

It was a very gratifying day. But I'd like to see some follow-through tomorrow (Tuesday).

It was a respectable day. But after the (Fed) decision tomorrow, I think we can do better. I think the Street is braced for a no-rate-cut, no-rate-hike move from the Fed.

It's a catch-22. If any of these numbers comes in too strong, it's going to hurt stocks because it means the Fed is going to keep hiking.

It's a good rally and it's got some legs for a few days, but I wouldn't go nuts chasing after it. It's going to be challenged in the near future.

It's not like stocks are sitting there unloved. They have done well.

It's been a slightly negative day, but after three good days and three good months, I fail to see how this is going to be a significant problem. It's just a breather today.

It's primarily a manufacturing recession. Just because it hasn't kicked in yet doesn't mean that eventually it won't work its way through, but it has to be accompanied by this inventory draw down.

Confession may be good for the soul, but not on Wall Street. The negative pre-announcements that have been with us for the past two weeks has begun to accelerate with 21 confessions yesterday (Wednesday) and a handful this morning. This sets up some fear and trembling about the wide range of reports to come through most of July.

The basic problem this week has been the arrival of third quarter earnings and the non response,

It was a pretty dismal day. We're really in oversold conditions at this point.

The two major hurdles continue to be oil and interest rates on the Treasuries. The market has demonstrated through the first quarter that we can snap back.

The two biggies after the close (Tuesday) -- Microsoft and Intel -- were OK but certainly not a market turn-on,

These surveys give regional snapshots, and that's all they do. I'd never even heard of the Empire State survey until recently -- and I don't think you can build the case that Wall Street sits there panting, waiting for the results.

The key this morning is the 10-year note hovering around a yield of 5%. This news trumps any economic or earnings data. It's a rate-driven market, even with oil competing for headlines. Any weakness we may see will be due to these bond yields.

The mergers helped, but you also had some asset reallocation, with people taking money out of Treasurys and putting it into equities.

The Microsoft delay has hurt the Nasdaq and will reverberate throughout all of technology. That will be today's big headline. We closed ragged yesterday, so we're going to have a tired market to start.

Intel hit everything in its report but said inventories are rising and profit margins are falling. And that's all she wrote.

In technology, I think the semiconductors, semiconductor equipment makers, and the companies that sell you electronic gear look attractive.

Clearly, the gulf between technology and the rest of the market was so wide it was impossible to sustain. And there had to be a correction somewhere and the correction is under way.

Cisco reports earnings tomorrow (Tuesday) and certainly that stock is at a price where there may be a split.

I don't think the money managers are going to go rushing into stocks just simply because we got to Dow 10,000.

However, the history of the stock market is that everyone sells into the strength. So I'll be taking it one hour at a time. I'm in a show-me mood today.

However, given that the volume yesterday was almost at the lowest level of the year, caution prevails. I can promise a decent opening but it's still a bell to bell story.

It's becoming a day-to-day struggle between bears and bulls. Once oil and yields move to highs, the bears take advantage. Those are the twin dreadnoughts of the market. But earnings news has been strong and has kept bulls on top.