The market generally tries to look forward. It's trying to look over the valley but doesn't know how far or wide that valley will be.
Overall inflation remains quite benign. Companies selling to consumers and businesses have limited pricing power.
But we do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Businesses are regaining confidence to the point where they are now actively hiring new workers.
We expect the 12th consecutive increase in the target fed funds rate and really no change in the tactics deployed in recent meetings.
We don't think we are going to have another recession ... We think there is enough stimulus in the pipeline, enough positive news in there to allow the economy to keep on a growth track for the next year.
Ascertain a trend rather than a reaction ? try not to read too much into economic numbers,
All the components are above the break-even point of 50. There is also relief in the prices paid component from lower energy costs along with easing in delivery time.
On the import side, the strength is from a rebuilding of inventories from companies and a general expansion of the U.S. economy. Petroleum imports increased, adding to the import bills.
Retailers are biting their nails because of the large decline in consumer confidence. But it remains to be seen whether consumers will vote with their feet.
