Marc Levesque
Marc Levesque
continue currency fed global increased monetary movements policy seeing shift terms
What we're seeing in terms of currency movements - and it will probably continue at least over the near-term - is a shift in global monetary policy expectations. There's a gearing-down of expectations for Fed tightening, coupled with increased tightening expectations elsewhere.
appetite bank beyond canada further giving hikes impression percent rate
Most importantly, the Bank of Canada is not giving the impression that it has much of an appetite for further rate hikes beyond the 4 percent level.
backdrop bit currency economy government majority matter rally surplus
If we end up with a majority government you could see a bit of a rally in the currency but it would be short-lived. Canada's economy is comfortably in surplus and that backdrop isn't going to change, no matter who wins.
anybody bank basis canada expecting hike next points
I don't know anybody out there who is not expecting the Bank of Canada to hike 25 basis points next week.
bank canada data investors providing rate reason risks sell upside
The data aren't providing any reason for the Bank of Canada to pause. The risks are on the upside for rate increases. Investors are going to sell bonds.
basically goes steady
This basically confirms their story, so steady as she goes on that front.
changed economy economy-and-economics focused less markets mean view word
They said nothing's changed in their view of the economy so markets focused on the word 'modest' to mean they'll be less aggressive.
job tale
This is really a tale of two job markets.
canadian decision dollar fed market rate weakness
The weakness in the Canadian dollar is essentially a follow-through from yesterday's Fed rate decision that has the market anticipating at least one more hike.
came case certainly details headline looks report trade worse
This morning's merchandise trade report certainly came as a shocker, but this is one case where the headline looks much worse than the details of the data.
battery hikes himself rate sees suggesting surprised time
That's not suggesting to me that he sees himself with having a whole battery of rate hikes going forward. I would not be surprised at all to see them go one more time and then pause.
appetite bank beyond bonds canada compelling economy half hike interest rally rates reason second
You should see Canada's 10-year bonds rally in the second half of this year. I don't see a big appetite on the part of the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates as the economy slows. There is no compelling reason to go beyond 4 percent.
commodity partly price
This may be partly a commodity price story.
bank canada focused market reaction strength tightly
There's little market reaction I think for two things. First, the strength was anticipated to some extent. Second, the market is very tightly focused on what the Bank of Canada is doing this afternoon.