We can expect a jobless rate of 9 percent by the summer, and that can have a positive impact on consumers confidence and on spending. The government's betting it will have a psychological impact.
What we're seeing now is a total reverse in what everyone expected ahead of the euro debut; retailers understood that the euro would add new pressures for competitiveness, so they chose to push prices down to attract customers.
The recovery remains very fragile. Consumption slowed, investments are still subdued, and exports are having difficulty picking up.
These figures prove that the ECB was wrong not to cut rates the last time it met,
Companies are worried. The situation could become much more difficult in the second quarter.
Companies that may have planned to create jobs here are not going to do it. If companies don't feel France is going to be reformed, companies are going to go where the labor market is more flexible.
The index remains negative, but it shows there is still internal demand and that consumers' economic reality may not be as bad as indicators describe it.
Even before the negative impact of the (youth employment measure) crisis on the economy, the evolution of industrial production in February already gives a picture of the current state of the French economy - in free fall.
Either we head into a more serious crisis, which will hit economic growth, or we abandon reform for a year. In both cases it is a failure for France.
We are paying for the strong level of the euro. An American would think twice before coming to France on holiday.
