We're going to see significant sterling weakness this year. Although the Bank of England is on hold for now the pressure is building for rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Nothing in today's testimony seems to change this.
I don't expect them to outright sell dollars -- that would lead to a crash, which would hurt China. It may signal a less aggressive accumulation of dollar reserves.
Fukui's comments are positive on a shift in policy, and we may even get rate hikes later this year. That is positive for the yen.
His (Weber's) comments are across-the-board hawkish... But the market has to see action. The rhetoric doesn't excite the market anymore.
The payrolls data managed to change interest rate expectations -- the market was pricing in a March (U.S. rate) hike by about 75-80 percent before the payrolls numbers came out. Once they had come out that was pushed towards 90 percent.
There has been more aggressive rhetoric from the U.S., but rhetoric is not going to make the Chinese move faster. They're on the correct path with a gradual strengthening of the yuan. Gradual is the key word.
The situation with the yen is a very strong economic story which hasn't translated into a stronger currency. The one missing piece of the puzzle was the fact that Japanese investors were investing more abroad. Any sign that they're investing less overseas is good for the yen.
There's a risk we get a bit of an overreaction to this result. We could still see reforms happening in Germany, and as the result becomes clearer the euro is likely to rebound.
It is technical, there is no real reason.
Economic news from Japan is positive, but the yen isn't benefiting from this very much because we're not likely to see a change in the interest rate policy yet. It's going to be difficult for the yen to stage a convincing recovery until the BOJ acts.
The message was consistent with what the market was already expecting.
The dominating theme in the market is yield. That's supporting the dollar and will continue to do so in the short term until the Fed signals it's thinking about the end of the rate cycle.
The dollar is under pressure and the main driving force for this is the market's expectation that the Fed will stop hiking rates soon.
The dollar is down because of anticipation of tensions in the region. When things start to get worse it's the dollar that weakens. It's more to do with risk aversion.
The dollar does seem relatively overbought, especially against the yen,
The currency will continue to appreciate at a gradual pace. We don't believe China will get rid of its gradualist approach.
The market started thinking that the data were just too bad to be true and this helped the dollar.
The market may see this as just rhetoric, and it shows they're not leaving China with any agreement to strengthen the yuan. The yen is most sensitive to changes in expectations on the yuan.
The market has its doubts that the new German government is going to be able to proceed with the necessary economic reforms, ... People aren't going to be buying the euro on the basis of this result, because we need to see some evidence that the new government will deliver.
The market is showing a textbook reaction, buying safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and euro and away from the dollar.
