Mark Vitner Quotations

There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,

We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.

We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.

We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.

The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.

The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.

We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.

Lots of the activity that had been taking place in New Orleans is now taking place in Houston or Dallas or Atlanta, Birmingham or Baton Rouge,

Many of these changes are long overdue and will bring the pension system in line with today's work force.

Ocala is much more affordable relative to other parts of the state.

If we had an anti-business Congress that went after pension reform aggressively, it could have a devastating impact on Wall Street.

If this kind of strength follows through to other reports, it will become very difficult for the Fed to leave rates unchanged when they meet on Aug. 22nd,

I don't have any faith that 32,000 jobs added reflects what's going on. The growing disconnect between the surveys is too much to dismiss.

Given that it's going to reach such an extended area and that it will be an unusually wet storm, damages are going to be a lot worse than $1 billion. So many homes, apartment buildings and shopping centers have been built in this part of the country that haven't been tested by a big storm. Now we're going to see just how good this construction has been.

I don't think it's a sure thing they'll tighten in December, even if it is now more likely.

If we see an increase in rent we could really see inflation numbers pick up in a meaningful way.

We expect to see weakness in the PPI given the weakness in manufacturing, which is the weakest part of the economy,

What would change this is if we were to see an unanticipated strengthening in the U.S. dollar. We'd see less people coming from Latin America.

I think it's going to be a bad month for retailers. The news was so horrific coming out of New Orleans that it made people not feel like going out to dinner.

It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.

It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.

It confirms that this recession in 2001 was not particularly mild or as short as some folks had thought, ... We were expecting at least two negative quarters, and the fact we had three is a little bit of a surprise. That helps explain why we're having so much difficulty generating some positive momentum right now. The economy was weaker than we had thought.

I think we'll see gas prices rise earlier than usual and faster.

It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.

I think they would be responding to all the talk of outsourcing and all the talk in the headlines.

It is important to look at what consumers are doing, not what they are saying,

I think spending will be pretty solid the rest of the year. The August numbers will be important due to back-to-school sales.

Just as when you save for kids' college, you don't want all your money in stocks two years before they start school. Now that the boomers are starting to retire, there's a lot more interest in bonds and longer-dated paper.

I think Ferguson might be the best vice chairman we've ever had.

Overall this year the economy moved past the bursting of the stock market bubble. Tech companies finally started growing again and that's really benefited the Triangle.

Overall supply and demand are moving into much better balance. With that, we're likely to see far less price appreciation than we saw in 2005.

Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.

People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.

That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February,

Markets are rational and forward-looking. However, they can also be wrong.

It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.

The 10 million jobs may be realistic, but it may not be all that different from what we would see no matter what happens. We're looking for 3 million jobs to be created in 2004. Even if Kerry is elected, he'll have no bearing on the economy until 2006.

We haven't seen that much improvement in employment of hourly workers because the job market for lower-skill workers still has a lot of slack in it. But if you look at skilled workers, it's a much different picture. We're starting to see some real shortages in some sectors.

We hope it will be the case that tax cuts will bridge the gap until hiring picks up, but that seems like a pretty precarious plan. But it's the only plan we've got.

While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.

Yesterday there was a little bit of a fear that maybe the housing market is not slowing down much and that the Fed has to do a little bit more, and today it takes some of that fear back out. They are really close to being done.

We expect a big jump in consumer confidence now that the effects of Katrina and higher gas prices are further behind us. Higher confidence will lead to a better-than-expected holiday shopping season as well.

Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.

Today's personal income report had very good news on inflation.

We're likely to see large upward revision to earlier data, so it'll be harder for January to show a big gain.

The debate about tax cuts shouldn't be whether they helped or not -- they clearly helped taxpayers. The debate should be whether we can afford them and whether they can lead to a sustained recovery in economy.

When combined with the run-up in employee health-care costs, ... the inability to raise selling prices is the single most important reason that job growth has been lagging so much during this recovery.

When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.

While goods producers continue to have little to no pricing power, we still believe the odds of outright deflation remain fairly low.

While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.

With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,

When the federal government increases the budget deficit it increases interest rates on everybody, so it is like a tax increase on borrowing. What that means is that mortgages will be more expensive.

Unemployment is low in places that were and were not impacted by hurricanes. It has been low for quite some time all across the state.

Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.

But pension accounting is awfully complicated and it's an awfully big company, so it's not surprising the markets would get a little spooked by it.

We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts.

We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.

There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.

The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.

What happened in March, if you were thinking about buying a home this spring and you thought rates were going to rise, you may well have rushed into the market. The weather cooperated as well, making it easy for folks to get out and shop, particularly in the South.

When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.

We do not view this as anything more serious than a much-needed correction.

Corporate America is on the mend. The only downside of stronger productivity growth is that it means hiring is lagging. As far as downsides go, this is roughly the equivalent of eating your broccoli. It may be tough to stomach at first, but it makes you stronger and healthier in the long run.

Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.

Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,

There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.

There's just such an enormous demand from pension funds and insurance companies to match their assets with the liabilities of the boomer generation.

It would create an awful mess in Florida, where the labor market is tight by any definition.

The same thing that has attracted retirees over the years is still there: the weather. You can do more things for a greater portion of the year.

The state is expected to gain 150,000 new residents this year, with two-thirds of the adults likely coming from other states for job opportunities.

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices. However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.

Normally, economists downplay periodic swings in energy prices, ... However, the most recent run-up is a source of concern because it may be raising inflation expectations. Workers do not live in a world that excludes food and energy prices. Wage demands, especially in the current tight labor market, will be based on the increase in the overall CPI.

The mystery is why this prolonged profit slump has not led to a larger cutback in consumer spending, ... The longer the profit drought persists the greater the risk is that this recession will broaden and deepen.

The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.

Some folks will be quick to jump on this morning's data as a sure sign that the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates. Such talk is still way too premature.

The more important figure (than confidence) for the economy is what consumers actually do. Consumers are not sitting on their wallets just yet. But that is about the only bright spot in this morning's report. With consumers concerned about both their stock portfolios and employment prospects, spending will likely rise a little less rapidly this fall.

Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.

Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.

Coming on the heels of stronger reports on retail sales and durable-goods orders, as well as a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment, this ... drop in consumer confidence was a cold slap in the face to all of those economists, including ourselves, that are looking for a second-half rebound.

A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.

A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.

Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,

As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.

That tells me not only is the global economy not strengthening, but it's getting weaker.

Alabama wanted to diversify its economy, and it paid up to do it.

This is a real win for the state, one we could build on.

This is a really good story from an economic standpoint. Manufacturing is clearly gaining momentum.

This is another affirmation that we've gotten over the shock of the hurricanes and the economy is back on track to where it was before.

This is such a different type of disaster than we're accustomed to dealing with.

The way the Fed is supposed to influence markets is through an open market policy, but they will also use the open mouth policy,

All of Florida is doing well. Its economy is outperforming the nation by the largest margin in recent memory. You'd be hard pressed to find a weak area anywhere in the state.

The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,

This may be the last bad PPI report we'll see for quite some time, ... This might be the height of this particular inflation scare.

This is the type of report we would expect to see, given the slowdown that we've already experienced in the economy, ... Companies don't have any pricing power, and if they don't have any pricing power, then inflation can't really be a threat.

They're only mediocre if you're a securities analyst, not if you're a real person, ... The successful retailers are opening stores like mad. That may steal sales from existing stores of their own as well as other retailers. But the overall pie is growing. I'm an economist; I focus on the pie, I don't care how they slice it.

They rely on a lot of other things. When you look at economy in its totality, virtually everything is stronger than the employment data.

It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.

I truly believe that they would like to stop at 5 percent, but if we get a really strong number (for economic growth) in the first quarter it may be hard to do that.

It suggests there could be a profit squeeze in some of the cyclical industries, ... Autos. Household appliances. Anything that has a lot of raw commodity in it. The end user is going to have a hard time passing those costs on to the consumers.

It's truly amazing unemployment has gotten this low in Florida when the population is growing as fast as it is.