Michael Blythe
Michael Blythe
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see. It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see, ... It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
becomes caution consumer depend extent labor large market persistent theme whether
Whether or not this consumer caution becomes a persistent theme in 2006 will depend to a large extent on labor market trends.
bank course currency growth medicine monetary moving picking rather reserve showing sideways signs slowing suggest time wages
Signs of slowing growth and wages moving sideways rather than picking up, and of course the currency showing some signs of life, suggest that the Reserve Bank has probably administered enough monetary medicine for the time being.
inflation lower per rate risks toleration
Policymaker's toleration for inflation risks must be lower when the inflation rate is bumping around 3% per annum,
again borrowing business economic growth investment looks ongoing pointing strong support
Business borrowing had another strong month, pointing to ongoing investment growth. Investment again looks set to support economic growth this quarter.
bottom building data housing mild near sector
Building approvals have been volatile, but with this bounce, and other data like housing credit, it does look like the housing sector is near bottom after a very mild downturn.
australia coming expect flow labor market push risks tight wages
Some of the risks coming through in the labor market in Australia are still very tight and, ultimately, you would expect that to push up wages and then flow through to inflation.
bank computing continuing difficult environment equipment household increases lower number obviously odds prices reserve resulted retail sit tools
A difficult retail environment resulted in significant discounting, so lower prices for clothing, household appliances, tools and computing equipment are possible. A low CPI number obviously increases the odds on the Reserve Bank continuing to sit on the sidelines.
interest likely outcome rates
The most likely outcome is that interest rates will rise.
extra shove suspect toward
So we suspect that it won't take much to give the RBA that extra shove toward tightening.
beat building bump cost created effect fall july last looks minute months previous pumped rush took
There were new building regulations there that took effect from July 1 which are going to bump up the cost of new houses. It looks like there was a last minute rush to beat that which pumped up previous months and created this pothole for us to fall into in July,