Michael Woolfolk
Michael Woolfolk
above capacity fed further given high increases last later levels low march raise rates recent release report
Given recent Fed warnings over high levels of capacity utilization and low levels of unemployment, today's report increases the probability that the Fed will raise rates above 5.0% later this year. Last Friday's release of March unemployment further buttresses this view.
ability deficit given indication market rally strong strongly trade
The US dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
ability deficit given indication market rally strongly trade
The U.S. dollar's ability to rally strongly off a better-than-expected trade deficit is a strong indication that the market hasn't yet given up on the dollar.
durable favorable gains given goods growth interest january market positive rate recent unlikely weigh
Given the recent spate of positive January data, CPI and durable goods are unlikely to disappoint. The USD is positioned to make new gains ... as favorable U.S. growth and interest rate differentials weigh on market sentiment.
anecdotal due evidence floor flows greater impact level lighter lower market point seeing trading
Anecdotal evidence on the trading floor indicates things have been lighter than at any other point in the week. You are seeing some one-off flows that are making a greater impact in the market due to this lower level of liquidity and volume.
below continue data fed labor likely market raising rates remains services support view
February's data support the view that the U.S. labor market remains strong, particularly on the services side, with unemployment solidly below the 5% level. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates for the foreseeable future.
benign canadian dollar inflation
Benign inflation has weakened the Canadian dollar a little bit.
auto loss market reflect rest saying surprise
(The survey) was a big surprise this morning, but some of the market is saying that Detroit, because of loss of auto jobs, does not reflect the rest of the nation.
both deep iran liquid markets money possible states sums united
I don't think it is possible for Iran to take money out of both the United States and Europe. There are just not sufficiently deep or liquid markets to place these sums of money.
market tape
But the tape will not be as important to the market as new data.
bond concerned decide forward market negative remove ultimately
What we are concerned about is that going forward they may decide to remove petrodollars and redirect them elsewhere. If they do, it is negative for the bond market and ultimately for the U.S. dollar.
albeit economic positive report tip week
This was undeniably a positive report. Today's report could very well tip off a strong, albeit short, week for U.S. economic data.
country dollar fiscal formula growth happens investing investors loose monetary policy private report short strong tight
This report is nothing short of remarkable. The formula for a strong dollar is strong growth, tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy. The U.S. happens to have all three. Private investors are comfortable investing in a country like the U.S.
buyers curve domestic foreign investors reason recession time yield
The reason why an inverted yield curve need not foreshadow recession this time is that it is foreign investors and not domestic investors who are increasingly buyers of U.S. bonds.