Pat Guinan Quotations

Joplin has been the bull's eye for the drought in Missouri, where 11 of the past 12 months have received below normal rainfall. The precipitation deficit is now approaching 20 inches, or less than 60 percent of normal.

Overall, most locations averaged 13 to 16 degrees above normal for the month. That's just amazing.

The good news is that spring is our wet season, with the months of April, May and June providing nearly a third of annual precipitation totals. So far, the long-range outlooks are showing no indicators that spring will be dry.

This was like manna from heaven for the entire state. And we need a lot more.

You have to look back 43 years, to 1963, to find anything this severe. It is a dire situation that may take over a year for full recovery, once the rains return.

And we'll need that for a successful growing season this year.

Right now we're working without our safety net. Fall and winter precipitation typically recharges the soil profile and increase pond, stream and river levels. Without that precipitation, it becomes imperative that spring rains come and give us the collateral we need as we enter the summer season.

Quick recovery from the drought is not likely. Even normal rainfall in May and June can't restore ground water levels.

The mother of all droughts in southwest Missouri occurred from 1952 to 1956 when precipitation in Joplin fell more than 81 inches below normal in a five-year period. Fortunately, we're no where near that right now.

This is a welcome step in the right direction, but we have a long way to go to make up the deficits.

Although we haven't had a lot of precipitation, what we have received has been able to move into the soil profile because there's been no frost line to contend with.

According to preliminary data, 2006 fell just three-tenths of a degree short of the record average of 40.7 degrees set in January 1933. However, many areas of the state did break local records, including Kansas City, Joplin, Rolla, and West Plains.

The atmosphere is pretty chaotic. That makes it much harder to predict spring and summer weather with any degree of certainty.

The consequences will be dire if we don't receive decent replenishment of water supplies, above and below ground, before summer arrives.