Paul Horsnell Quotations

We are in the middle of a fairly ferocious energy price spike. The spike could be checked by a move back towards normality in Venezuela, or by a release of U.S. strategic reserves. However, the application of either of these brakes does not look particularly imminent, and in their absence the upwards pressure is likely to continue.

Even before the hurricane there was no slack in the refining system, ... Now it's at breaking point. Those refineries will take months to come back online.

It's a downward drift that's been going on to close to three months now. And there's no dynamic that brings it around for the moment, so we can keep on drifting down.

But the scale of the fall remains beyond that which would be expected, given the difference in supply lines, and regardless of its motivation it still raises the question as to how inventories for the driving season can be built in a timely fashion.

The market seems to have pushed far too far, far too fast and on the basis of far too little hard information.

The maximum amount of oil product that can be managed into the U.S. is two million barrels a day. Logistically, it's quite challenging.

The initial question is where is the 2 million barrels going to come from.

The market faces the prospect of years without sufficient flexibility or insulation from shocks during a period of extreme geopolitical stress.

Some of these refineries will not be back to full operation, perhaps well into next year.

The issue of Iran's international relations continues to rise to the fore as a major potential area of market concern. It now seems likely that the EU3 of Germany, UK, and France will later this week abandon the mothballed talks with Iran.