Richard Pasch Quotations

We're looking at local squalls ... with winds gusting up to 50-60 miles per hour (80-96 km/h).

Hurricanes rarely sustain such extreme winds for much time. However we see no obvious large-scale effects to cause a substantial weakening the system and it is expected that the hurricane will be of Category 4 or 5 intensity when it reaches the coast.

Right now what we're forecasting is for it to become a tropical storm and move into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Most locations experienced at least Category 1 conditions and a number of locations experienced Category 2 conditions.

We have the unpleasant possibility that the cyclone could linger near the southeast United States through five days,

When you start inferring lots of things from the hurricane climate data, then you're on thin ice because that climate data is not very good.

The big questions are how soon this turn will occur, and how far to the right Lili might go during the next few days. This has a critical bearing on south Florida.

It's going to be very close. We're not saying there is a threat now, but there is a potential threat.

It should have more time over the water so it could potentially be stronger than (Tropical Storm) Charley.

The big question continues to be what will happen beyond the five-day forecast period. It is still impossible to state with any confidence whether a specific area along the U.S. coast will be impacted by Isabel.

The intensity of a hurricane does not mean that the strength of the wind is the same everywhere around the storm's circulation.

The lesson to be learned here is people shouldn't take a Category 1 or 2 hurricane lightly. A Category 1 or 2 has the same winds as a low-end tornado.

The main impediment to strengthening will be land. But Jamaica and even western Cuba are unlikely to have much impact.