We're more likely to get between 100,000 to 200,000, maybe 250,000 jobs a month in the coming months, and fluctuating -- very choppy,
We're going to continue to see this throughout 2004, this sideways movement in consumer confidence, simply because we're going to see a very choppy recovery in the labor market, and employment is the single most important influence on consumer attitudes.
Ultimately the buck stops with the president. If people are upset about the economy and want to blame someone, that someone is probably going to be the president,
Make no mistake about it. Inflation is building in the pipeline. It is no longer a matter of if, but when, those price pressures will start to affect the general price level.
If they didn't pause after Katrina, they are not going to pause in the next few months.
I believe that the housing market has moved from a boil to a simmer.
I give him an A-plus. Job 1 was, 'Don't upset the market,' and he didn't do that.
I firmly believe that the Fed does not know what it's going to do, certainly not at this point, ... the big linchpin in this whole thing.
I can't see the state of job creation changing for the better anytime soon.
I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
God forbid this happened next year when we'll have a new kid on the block, ... We did have that with Greenspan in 1987, and he did fine.
What economists see as half full, investors see as half empty.
History tells us that the Fed has always overshot its tightening goal. Central bankers like to know the cork is firmly implanted in the bottle so that the inflation genie doesn't sneak out.
Greenspan will take it away on Wednesday like everyone's saying here, but he's only taking it away momentarily, ... He's taking one and he's done.
I think it's the beginning of a prolonged slowdown, but not a recession.
I think for all intent and purposes, you really have to rule out a Fed rate hike on October 5,
Retailers and construction companies just weren't hiring last month. Retailers did less hiring this holiday season.
Looking at where we are right now, I don't think the Fed raises rates until 2005.
The argument is that Venezuela is not willing or they're not going to be able to (comply with the cuts). Here it is eight, nine days later and they're already backing out. We knew it wasn't going to last, but this is a little on the ridiculous side.
We caution investors; one month of stellar job creation does not a trend make. And since the entire Street has diminished economic growth projections for 2005, we have to stick to our guns of slower, not stronger, job creation in coming months.
We have not seen any inflation yet, but what we have heard is an inordinate number of price increase announcements in the third or fourth quarter, but they were not supposed to take effect until Jan. 1.
The pre-auction announcement speculation was the cause for the rapid sell-off in the 30-year bond,
You haven't heard one story in the last ten months, 12 months, of any company saying, hey, we have intentions of hiring. We're going to be hiring. No company has said that.
We are convinced that a large portion of the tax refunds that are scheduled to arrive in consumers' mailboxes in March and April will be dedicated to these exorbitant energy costs. With that, there'll be less money spent on other goods and services.
The December inflation picture may look relatively benign, but the early 2006 outlook is considerably different.
There are a number of things weighing heavily on corporate decision making. They're hesitant to go forward with anything above the bare necessity to keep their business profitable.
We've passed the complaining stage and entered the actionable phase.
We already knew that economic growth in the fourth quarter was depressed. The pace of economic growth in the first quarter may be three times as fast, generating a lot of momentum as we head into the summer.
Up until now, we haven't seen any backlash to record prices at the pump from consumers, but now the story is changing,
We gave back some ground because the data proved that the economic slowdown isn't necessarily a sure thing, ... If consumer confidence remains at near all-time highs, the economy will continue to expand.
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.
Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island.
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
So we don't get the gold medal in housing this year ? we have to settle for the bronze. There's still plenty of demand for housing in the U.S., even with the higher mortgage rates.
Now it's time to pay the piper and get this deficit back down to more manageable levels, and I believe the president's budget will address these issues,
Another rate hike is all but a done deal.
August isn't exactly a barnburner for job creation. It didn't appear as if corporate America flicked on the hiring switch last month. I think there were a lot of problems plaguing big business. So I don't think we're going to get a big jobs number.
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
That's not a lot of money available to hire new workers and invest in new equipment -- if businesses wanted to do that, and that doesn't seem to be case.
That's five months of sitting on your rear end unemployed, and that doesn't bode well for spending.
This is Greenspan?s last hurrah. The swan song for the big guy.
This is good news. For all intents and purposes, this is really good data. Some equities should rally on this.
This is not a good report, all things considered.
Americans are not going to be happy, but they now face considerably higher energy prices. That's going to be the norm, not the exception.
It's not really that shocking; we kind of expected it. As the economy begins to moderate, we'll get these sporadic spurts of growth -- like an engine running out of gas. We suspect the trend will remain moderation.
It's not really that shocking; we kind of expected it, ... As the economy begins to moderate, we'll get these sporadic spurts of growth -- like an engine running out of gas. We suspect the trend will remain moderation.
For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.
It's looking like this party we're all talking about has turned into a gala.
Consumers are partying like it's 1999, ... They are celebrating their full-employment status and they are spending. The punch bowl is only spiked with 1-1/2 percent inflation, which isn't anything.
Consumers aren't knocking the cover off the ball. Their confidence isn't a grand slam, but they aren't striking out, either.
The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
The sentiment I get from the Beige Book, along with listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, and just the general tone of my conversations with people who have their fingers on the trigger of hiring, say companies are just not doing much of it.
It's not all roses in the labor market. I think the worst is behind us, but we're more likely to have flat, or sideways, movements in job creation for the next year, year and a half.
It's not a subject that anyone can afford to fail.
The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.
The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.
The February drop in retail sales is not a sign that the economy is losing momentum. It is simply a payback for extraordinary numbers in January.
Inflation pressures are rising, but at a subdued pace.
Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
I'm not at all convinced this recovery we're having is going to be as smooth as we've had in previous recoveries.
I had a low forecast for February simply because we had terrible weather, ... Yet, we still managed to have this kind of activity. So this is very encouraging for housing. Had it not been for the inclement weather, we would have had a stronger posting.
By historical comparison, there's not an economist on the street that can call housing weak right now.
Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
By any measure, third-quarter economic growth was quite impressive. It would be even more impressive if it could be sustained in the fourth quarter, but we're almost certain to lose some momentum.
I don't think this is worrisome at all. We're coming off an extremely strong month.
I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.
The industrial production number is the benchmark -- other surveys, while they're good, pale in comparison to the strength this indicator has.
The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.
All of these corporate chieftains are saying new hiring is in the cards, around the corner, down the road -- but that doesn't mean March.