Somebody should wave these numbers under Mervyn King's eyes,
But while the market seems to have bought the story of further Fed tightening almost in its entirety, they do not yet seem to be taking the next step and considering what this will do to the economy.
The initial impression ... was of a chairman who did not want to shock the markets. The general tenor of the prepared remarks was that he would not take any chances with inflation, while retaining the risk management approach of his predecessor.
We cannot begin to quantify the potential damage in terms of gross domestic product, but a realistic scenario might be GDP declines in the tens of percent, ... In the case of slower growing economies such as Europe or Japan, a decade's economic growth could be wiped out.
This change is unlikely to hit anyone immediately, but Greece is more clearly in the crosshairs than any other countries,
Substantial loss of life would obviously lead to a decline in economic output but we believe fear of infection, leading to drastically altered behavior, would result in the greatest economic damage.
Alan Greenspan...will likely add flesh to the bones of the FOMC statement. We believe there can be little doubt that Greenspan's testimony will be hawkish,
There is a danger that the stronger euro will snuff out the data. But at this point in time I would be very surprised if anyone is thinking about a rate cut, and instead they will be thinking about what is the timing of the first rise.
There is a danger that the stronger euro will snuff out the data, ... But at this point in time I would be very surprised if anyone is thinking about a rate cut, and instead they will be thinking about what is the timing of the first rise.
