We're probably raising the endpoint for the Fed's easing target from 1.5 percent to at best 1.75 percent,
The only thing that isn't debatable is that we have a downward trend in yield,
I would say the market has been a bit sanguine about Friday's employment report, the consensus being 125,000, with a number of big shops looking for softer numbers than consensus than in the previous two months.
People are reading a lot into this move that really isn't justified.
The real surprise is that none of the usual indirect bidders turned up. Maybe they were scared away by the jump in direct bidding (Wednesday).
We are still kind of stuck in this 4.67-4.77 percent range and I guess the reversal in oil is what kind of took a chunk out of equities and resumed a modest bid in bonds.
The view that the Fed can take a measured approach is supported by the Greenspan testimony today -- he reiterated that the measured approach is really the right medicine here.
It was an extremely ugly auction. And that's something nobody wants to see, not the Street and certainly not Treasury, given the amount of borrowing they have to do.
The speculative sellers are looking for the big jobs number that will break us out the range (for yields).
It's a good sign, but it's not the driving force in the market.
It's got people jittery that the Fed may drop the phrase this time, ... We don't think they'll mess with it because it would upset the market too much, but they could well get more upbeat on the labor market.
It's pretty much expected due to the extraordinary situation. Their biggest concern is making sure there's ample liquidity, especially as the equity markets open. The bond market had been expecting it.
It's pretty much expected due to the extraordinary situation, ... Their biggest concern is making sure there's ample liquidity, especially as the equity markets open. The bond market had been expecting it.
It's been heavy supply now for several days. We've got a trading range that we've held to very tightly.
The two together kind of make an evil witches' brew for Greenspan: employment growth and price pressure. And there's the thought that 'what if the Fed is behind the curve,'
The market tried so hard to break 3.90 (percent), but the Europeans threw in a curve ball.
The market seemed to have it in their mind that the Fed had already changed their mind, that there was a change in policy to a more aggressive pace (of rate tightening), but that did not occur.
The market has every reason to be nervous.