Sherry Cooper Quotations

There is no longer a shadow of doubt that the U.S. economy is downshifting rapidly; the only question is how deep the slowdown goes, ... We do not expect to see recession in 2001, but we certainly expect to see significantly slower growth with continued moderating inflation.

We remain of the view that next week's rate hike will not be the Fed's last work this cycle. Indeed, they will likely eventually unwind all of last fall's crisis-induced easing.

What we're seeing is reminiscent of the early 1990s -- a jobless recovery.

What little data I've seen suggests that only about 25 percent of businesses have taken deliberate, serious action. And certainly the larger corporations would be the ones that would begin the process. Let's face it, a small company probably would not have the capability of taking very dramatic action.

Worry not, the longest expansion in American history still has legs.

This will provide some offset to the drag caused by the hurricane's direct damage and flooding, which, along with the massive amounts of money being deployed in the affected area, suggest that the ultimate impact of Katrina on GDP might prove more fleeting than first thought.

This production figure emphasizes that the US economy had solid underlying momentum heading into month-end,

So I don't think the number was quite as weak as the headline.

October and November ... sales each registered substantial gains (excluding autos), pointing to a reasonable fourth-quarter consumer spending figure when all is said and done.

Right now, it appears that the (Fed) believes that the odds are better than 50-50 that another 25 basis point rate hike will be warranted.

My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend.

I do not want to generate fear unnecessarily,

Bearing in mind that the Fed wants higher inflation, the news is not unwelcome. And the market will remain firmly in the camp that the Fed will not tighten soon, ... Nevertheless, the risks from the PPI are easy to see and look real in light of the big decline of the dollar and rise in import costs that preceded them.

Further widening in the trade deficit in the months ahead is very likely given that the surge in oil prices will drive imports higher and that there has been no let-up in the domestic economy.

If the incoming data remain relatively soft, including the inflation data, the Fed will take a pass in August, ... Even if they do raise rates, it may well be the end of the tightening cycle, which is very good news for the stock and bond markets.

There is good financial-market news everywhere you look in this report.

It certainly affects psychology, but if the job market starts growing, that effect is far more important to psychology than something that's happening half a world away.

It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.

January's results were clearly exaggerated, but the underlying trend is still surprisingly healthy.

Overall, this can be viewed as more evidence that the consumer is hanging in well despite the run-up in oil prices and growing equity market volatility.

Right now, the acceleration in commodity prices tips the scales for a 16th and a 17th rate hike by the Fed.

Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.

Starts at year-end 2003 will provide additional support for GDP during the first two quarters of 2004 as construction activity gradually brings these buildings to completion.

June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary.

When the 10-year yield got to 4.4 percent Tuesday, I said this was probably a short-term buying opportunity and that we would see some correction.

While we would not get too excited, these data are just the right stuff to further trends already under way in financial markets. Whispers about Fed easing are sure to follow.

U.S. industrial activity is improving, but it can't be described as healthy just yet.

Wages are still running a bit hot for comfort, the jobless rate is still quite low and the underlying trend in employment (especially full-time) remains strong.

Today's US employment report, though not a blockbuster, certainly portends at least a 3% growth rate in the second quarter.

Today's report indicates that the sector is still robust and entered the second quarter with lots of momentum.

(Today's data) will likely keep the Bank of Canada on track for a rate hike at next week's decision,

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending... but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

The cooling US housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending as 2005-2006 unfolds, but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending as 2005-2006 unfolds, but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

The cooling U.S. housing sector should apply a dampener to consumer spending ... but some of this could be offset by still-decent job growth.

While overall U.S. growth slowed, it by no means is flirting with a stall; soft landing chances were increased by this news, ... Indeed, some may ask, 'what landing?'

While much of the growth surge reflects stellar productivity gains, this pace of growth is way too strong for the Fed,

We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway.

This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.

This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out. It does, however, hint in that direction.

There has obviously been quite a bit of dissension as to the governmental policies, the slashing in fiscal expenditure, potential tax increases, as well as the astronomical increases in interest rates.

Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.

While this report yielded few surprises, it simply highlights the relentless strength in the economy and provides more ammunition for the Fed to continue tightening policy,

While the rise in core prices is a bit uncomfortably high, this stand-alone report is not evidence that soaring energy prices are feeding into other prices.

There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.

U.S. consumers are feeling the benefits of higher incomes and are spending more to reflect their good moods, ... Buoyed by record confidence, income growth, and a super-tight jobs market, the consumer is showing no signs of slowing and should continue to propel the U.S. economy.

Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.

The shift in the Fed chair will be seamless,

Predicting the long-awaited U.S. economic slowdown can be a risky business,

After a spring lull, consumers are back on track. While we do expect some cooling in the fourth quarter due to the pinch from higher energy prices, spending growth remains remarkably resilient.

After an incredibly warm January, February's chillier temperatures only managed to cool housing activity modestly.

Despite the pop in core PPI inflation in July, there appears to be little pressure lurking on the horizon in the near term. The pipeline measures remain subdued and vehicle pricing appears to have distorted the figures.

Despite slowing job growth momentum, the Fed is going to pay attention to the diminishing slack (the 5 per cent unemployment rate could be as low as 4.8 per cent if not for the hurricanes) and the pickup in wage pressures,

The business community has actually been quite lax in taking this seriously.

that the coming holiday season will be rosier than earlier expected.

The modest downtrend in order growth is pointing to some moderation in the months ahead,

This is still a very strong retail sales report,

This all but seals the deal on a coming cessation in Fed tightening,

Although the cooling U.S. housing sector is going be a major drag on consumer spending as 2006 unfolds, consumers are starting the year in an upbeat mood, buoyed by solid labor markets. As such, U.S. consumer spending could display more early-year resilience than is currently expected.

The repercussions on global trade would be devastating, ... Given that virtually all major economies have a surplus with the (United States), trade disruptions would shutter manufacturing plants and curtail global demand for most commodities.

About six months ago, there was really no concern, and I think it makes sense to be concerned.

It's a great number obviously, and that's a sigh of relief, but I wouldn't put too much into the decline of the core,

It's an unmitigated negative for the economy -- but hopefully it's temporary.

Foreigners own 11 percent of U.S. stocks -- that's not huge, but at the margin it makes a big difference. And right now there's massive foreign buying of bonds because they're a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty -- that could change as well.

Domestic demand remains remarkably strong, as the import data clearly indicate-a prime focus for the Fed,

Consumers remained optimistic about their present situation, but going forward, sentiment is a bit shaky.

The biggest risk (to energy supplies) is natural gas prices because there is no meaningful emergency inventory,

The big dip in inventories is a good sign if we are looking for a glimmer of hope here. Maybe we are at a stage where production can pick up again.

The bank's new focus is likely to be on rising wage pressures, but that still seems a distant inflation threat at this point. On balance, there is nothing here to divert the bank from its gradual tightening course.

No surprises for the bank, so no shift in the policy program.

The U.S. housing market appears to be gradually losing steam under the weight of higher mortgage rates, ... Even so, the market remains exceptionally healthy by any yardstick.

These two key reports reinforce the underlying story of red-hot growth and stable inflation, which was the hallmark of the U.S. economy in 1999,

Armed with the weaker U.S. dollar, commodity prices heading north, and a strengthening economy, rising inflation pressure is still likely to emerge as a concern for the Fed. But not yet. Not yet.

The Fed might have been in a dilemma if signs of slower growth were coupled with signs of a wage/price spiral. However, that is emphatically not the case. The underlying inflation outlook is not a problem for the Fed or the financial markets.

The Fed and the markets will see few signs of slowing in these figures, but little reason to fear an impending inflation acceleration either ,

The Canadian poultry industry is, in general, little dependent on exports or imports, but new provincial rules forcing the confinement of birds make the practice of free-range raising more difficult.

The Christmas season this year might well bring cheer, but consumption growth next year is bound to slow, ... From an annual pace of nearly 4.0 percent in 2004, consumer spending will likely grow at a 3.5 percent rate this year, decelerating to a 2.25 percent pace in 2006.

Inflation in the U.S. remains virtually non-existent, as does corporate pricing power.

In a vibrant economy, you will always have some prices rising and some falling. That's a good thing, and that's what seems to be happening at this stage.

I'm not worried about inflation per se ; I'm worried about inflation in asset prices. When the Fed has been aggressively easy in the past, it's ended up having to come in and aggressively raise interest rates and cause a lot of unnecessary dislocation.

Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.

Clearly the new paradigm is alive and well, ... While (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan downplayed the policy significance of CPI in his remarks last night, it is still a major positive for investors that core inflation remains benign.

High energy prices keep on working their way through the system. The risks remain skewed to a mild up-creep in core inflation during the months ahead, which will keep the Fed on track for another rate hike in March and likely in May.

I do think, however, that it is very important that we, as individuals, protect ourselves; that businesses make contingency plans; and that governments at all levels ? public health officials everywhere ? do what is necessary to minimize the danger of a potential pandemic.

However, there are deepening questions as to how far they will go beyond that point, especially given the looming hit to growth from the spike in oil and gas prices and the renewed Canadian dollar rise.

I do believe there is still evidence that the economy is red hot, and I think the Federal Reserve will be monitoring the income numbers closely to decide whether to go 25 basis points or 50 at their upcoming policy meeting.

The key here is that we anticipate what the big issues will be and that we take actions today to prevent or at least mitigate the disruption.

These figures reinforce the slowdown view, ... The weakness in confidence increases the odds that a sustained soft landing is moving into place.

All in all, the year-over-year trend in income jumped to 6.1 percent from 5.4 percent, suggesting that consumer fundamentals remain very strong, ... Consumer spending remains on a tear.

The great post-Katrina inflation scare has vanished, with gasoline prices coming back down to Earth and core inflation on track to match the Bank of Canada's latest estimate of 1.6 per cent for Q4.

The inflation data does not take the Fed out of the picture. It does, however, remove the risk of the Fed having to tighten 50 basis points on June 30.

The inflation data does not take the Fed out of the picture,

The economy is in very good shape and people don't realize it. We really do have low inflation and low unemployment, and the economy has been growing at a rate of 3 percent or better since the last recession.

The future path for monetary policy depends critically on at least a flattening out of interest-sensitive spending, ... It is touch-and-go whether the softness in interest-sensitive spending is sufficient to be consistent with the required degree of overall economic slowing.

The markets are assuming that the Fed are finished tightening for the year, ... That presumption might prove to be premature. We, and the Fed, will wait and see.