Stein Dorenfeldt Tønnesson (born 2 December 1953), is a Norwegian historian. (wikipedia)
There are several good candidates on the atomic weapons front.
At this stage, Ahtisaari stands out as an obvious choice. The peace process (orchestrated by Ahtisaari) in Indonesia seems to be a real success.
If the committee wants to go further this year in widening its interpretation of peace, the prize could go to Bono or Geldof.
It may be that the members of the committee feel more tempted when they have met someone, heard them talk and been impressed.