The production of gasoline in the U.S. is quite limited compared against the same period last year. And the refinery bottleneck situation is still a problem that drives the market.
We need confirmation of heating oil demand. People will be watching that figure when the report is published.
Most of the traders are looking at the Iranian issue over the bearish inventory report.
I believe the recovery of crude oil production in the Gulf area will take a long time, one month or even two.
If winter is colder than expected then prices could rebound quite sharply.
The pace of demand growth in China is something we are all watching, because it will have a greater effect on crude oil demand-supply balance at some stage.
Last week, there was an attack by terrorists in Saudi Arabia and that's why the market jumped, but the Saudi authorities were successful in foiling the attack so this calmed the market a bit, prompting traders to have a reason to sell.
People are just waiting for a chance to buy ahead of Christmas. At the US$58 level, it's a good time to buy back.
Supplies of crude oil and oil products are less than normal, which will bring a much tighter market in winter.
We're all watching the temperatures now, if they go down, there'll be a rush to buy. But most traders are just looking at the short term rather than the medium or long term.
Traders need to understand that the supply-demand situation is much tighter in fact, especially since U.S. Gulf of Mexico operations are still mostly down. Demand is still strong, and can only rise in coming months.
Traders are most concerned about the Iranian issue, as the situation appears to be getting worse.
Traders are looking at weaker demand, and that's the main reason why they are just sitting in the market right now.
Traders are looking at the Nigerian and Iranian issues. They don't like to sell at present.
The conversion is proving to be difficult. The U.S. has a problem with ethanol supplies because they are limited right now.
(U.S. data) showed quite bearish numbers. Prices may fall rapidly to $56 unless we have cold weather.
(U.S. data) showed quite bearish numbers, ... Prices may fall rapidly to $56 unless we have cold weather.
Even though heating oil inventories fell, the level they are at is not as low as we had expected. The market is just watching temperatures in the northeast of the U.S. for price direction.
Everyone's just looking at Rita. It's more psychological right now. But if Rita comes to the Gulf of Mexico and disrupts supply, then we have a problem.
The situation has completely changed since the beginning of October.
The supply of oil is still ongoing; most people feel there won't be a disruption, so they're taking profit now, especially after Friday's sharp increase.
Temperatures in the U.S. are not as cold as we expected. Stockpiles seem adequate for the moment.
Production in the Gulf has risen dramatically and refinery input has also risen, these are good selling factors.
People don't like to take any position before Christmas. Most people are thinking prices will be sustained at this level for the time being.
After some profit-taking, we are now waiting for the inventory data. But the Nigerian crisis remains a serious issue.
The oil market is now down because most people are taking profits after seeing a sharp increase last week.
Oil may peak during the hurricane season in August or September. Economic growth will add to tightness in supply.
The weather and the high crude inventory levels are the main factors weighing down prices. This trend should carry on until the end of the year, with prices to hold between $55-$58.
The release of crude and gas stocks from the IEA provided a good cover against the shortage expected after the hurricanes,
It seems to be a very crazy market. People worry about gasoline and crude oil supply.
It looks quite unlikely that Katrina would affect the Gulf of Mexico facilities, and that's what's bringing the price down now as people start to take profits.
It's still very difficult to tell what the situation in winter will be, but as soon as colder weather comes along, prices would definitely go up,
Stock levels were the highlight of the week, and should remain so next week -- the recovery we are seeing now is a buy-back ahead of the U.S. public holiday on Monday.
Oil prices would be pushed up by this kind of pension-fund money. It's a big one we cannot ignore.
The inventory data must be quite a bearish factor in the market. The price is well supported around $58 a barrel though.
Imports from IEA countries are almost completed. The demand-supply balance is a little tighter.
In that case, we'll be in the winter season already. If temperatures in winter time are lower than forecast, then that should be a big problem.
This is a huge amount of money in the commodities market. Oil prices would be pushed up by this kind of pension fund money.
The economy seems to have completely absorbed high oil prices and people will be looking for steady economic growth next year. People expect a drawdown in crude oil stocks so they don't want to be short over the New Year.
The market sentiment now is much more nervous.
The market has met some resistance at this level. Investors are taking profit after the rally and the entire commodity complex including metals is down. It might drop to $70 and then people may come in to buy then.
The market is quite weak as the U.S. starts receiving materials from abroad. I'm looking for oil to fall to $62.
