William Hummer
William Hummer
asian crisis earnings economists major sight trim
There's no end in sight as the Asian crisis will go on for years and this is having a major effect, ... It will trim earnings probably more substantially than many economists expected.
easing fed fixing flu global help major market prevent problems recession require sees shot temporary
We see the Fed easing as a flu shot that will help prevent recession in 1999, but fixing the global problems that underlie the markets' malaise will require major surgery. So basically, I think the market sees through this as a temporary boost, but there are fundamental problems that aren't yet resolved.
condition due gaining gotten likelihood negatives reinforced stock weighed year
I think the likelihood of gaining is reinforced this year because we've gotten to an oversold condition due to all the negatives that have weighed on stock investors,
although market performance reaction stock
I'd characterize third-quarter stock performance as disappointing and event-driven, although it was understandable why the market reaction was what it was,
affect corollary energy hurricane market moving poison question
Hurricane Rita, and its corollary affect on energy prices, is moving the market today, no question about it. Uncertainty is poison for the market.
accelerate activity balance business expect investment overall pace third trade
I expect there will be improvements in the trade balance and business investment and in inventories so that the overall pace of activity will accelerate in the third quarter,
appeal energy hold looking managers money previous sector stocks three
I think energy stocks will flatten or worse, ... I'm not looking at the sector to tank, but I don't think it will hold the same appeal for money managers as it has in the previous three quarters.
continues earnings economy fed happen reflected second
If the Fed is right and the economy continues to expand, we'll see that happen and see it reflected in the earnings for the second half.
entering period stock
We're entering a seasonal period now, pre-Thanksgiving, pre-December holidays, where we often see a stock advance,
advances amount change efficiency floor happy investors perception technology tremendous
There are a tremendous amount of investors who are very happy with the floor system, ... That is not to say that over years advances in technology and efficiency won't change that. My perception is that the change will be glacial, not abrupt.
economic election fade forces held hostage news takes
There are a combination of forces which could be positive, on net. The market's been held hostage by the election and Iraq, and those may at least temporarily fade as preoccupations if better economic news takes hold.
sector services showing starting wages
The services sector is showing some inflationary pressure, and wages are starting to climb.
beginning economy momentum people since strength year
The strength of the economy since the beginning of the year has been an embarrassment to forecasters. There is much more momentum than most people recognized.
bringing coming corporate earnings estimates growth interest low market rates sustained until year
That's what's probably bringing the market around. Low interest rates and sustained growth will bring estimates that corporate earnings over the coming year could very well be up 8 or 9 percent. That will sustain the market for the coming months, until year-end.