Safa Rashtchy Amazon Quotations

If Amazon produces the numbers, nobody will care. If the growth isn't there, then I think it will become more of an issue. Why isn't there the disclosure level that we would expect?

We believe Amazon will lack any catalysts to move it higher and we consider the stock overvalued compared to peers.

While this may be a slower increase than we saw in 2005, this takes Amazon further away, not closer, to its goal of double-digit margins.

Competition is seriously hurting Amazon and it needs to increase spending just to keep up with the market. The picture is getting worse: more spending, steeper decline in margins.

Amazon is handling the competition fairly well, but it is not pulling away from the pack (of other Internet retailers),

Amazon insists it is still on the path to double-digit operating margin, despite the fact the 2005 guidance distinctly suggests a reversal of this course with declining incremental operating margin. Clearly, something is amiss here.

It might be the case that Amazon finally reached the top level of expenses.

If the numbers are better than expected, Wall Street will assume Amazon can grow faster in the future and that bodes well for the bottom line. It would also means consumer spending, especially in the online retail arena, is holding up well.

but I think eBay and even Amazon have reached pretty high valuations that can't be supported even with their growth rate.

The key for Amazon is definitely top-line growth in 2002 and beyond. Expectations are not that big. Our model is for a 12 percent increase year over year. That by itself is not enough. Investors expect growth will accelerate in 2003 and beyond, and for that to happen, they need to have some new service deals.