But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.
We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
The minutes kind of fed into the sentiment in the market right now that the Fed is closer to done. The minutes threw lighter fuel on that one.
If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
The FOMC minutes provided further affirmation to a bond market that continues to see the glass as half full.
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.
A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
A lot of people were hoping June was a fluke and that employment would bounce back, but two in a row is pretty tough to write off. I think market investors are now more worried about the corporate and economic outlook.
The economy is still growing at an above trend pace and with slack in labor and product markets all but fully absorbed, inflation pressures will begin to gradually build this year.
We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.
Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
The market seems to be betting that the storm won't have a long-term impact, but that really depends on how much the storm disrupts the oil infrastructure, something we may not know for weeks.