Steven Wood Likely Quotations

Unseasonably mild weather in January, coming after unseasonably severe weather in December, generated a huge increase in housing starts. Moreover, February's weather is likely to generate a big decline in housing activity next month.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped. These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped, ... These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

Payroll employment for October will plunge sharply and unemployment will continue to rise, likely breaching 6 percent by early next year,

The demand for new housing surged, likely because rising mortgage rates motivated some potential homebuyers to accelerate their buying decisions.

There is a clear improving trend in orders which provides support for the recovering manufacturing sector, ... Although some of the inventory building that occurred was likely Y2K related and will be reversed in the new year, the acceleration of both shipments and backlogs suggests that the manufacturing recovery has substantial staying power.

There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish.

With last week's Fed tightening, mortgage rates have continued to rise, so that further declines in housing activity are likely over the balance of the year. Nevertheless, robust labor markets and rising incomes have helped sustain housing at a relatively high level.

These data indicate that the deterioration in the labor market has not been halted. Therefore, the slowing in the broad economy has likely not been halted either.

These data add to the growing evidence that economic activity has slowed and that any re-acceleration is likely to be short-lived.

Despite the strength during the quarter, the period ended on a much weaker note, suggesting (second-quarter) growth is likely to be weaker. These data are unlikely to sway the (Fed) from easing again at (its) May 15th meeting.

Although productivity is not likely to return to the supercharged pace of last year, it is likely to settle in comfortably above the 1.5 percent average pace during the 20 years before 1995.

Inventory building is slightly stronger in January and February than it was in 4Q, suggesting that inventory investment is likely to add modestly to Q1 GDP growth,

However, the jump in new orders was too narrowly concentrated in civilian aircraft and defense orders to offer much more than modest encouragement. Although the worst may be over for the manufacturing sector, any recovery is likely to be sluggish.