Steven Wood Pace Quotations

Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped. These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

The pace of layoffs is rising again, while new hiring has stopped, ... These trends will likely be extended because of the economic dislocations associated with this week's tragic events.

Labor markets are deteriorating quickly in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11. The economy was quite weak before the attacks, which have accelerated the pace of layoffs. As layoffs spiral higher, hiring activity has stopped, giving a strong upward push to joblessness.

The recent pace of growth in the leaders suggests that economic growth should slow from its 3.6 percent over the four quarters through the third quarter of 2005.

Even as the pace of layoffs has ebbed, no new hiring is taking place, so continuing claims will rise even further and surpass their peak in the last recession. Labor market deterioration is continuing with no end in sight.

These data indicate that wholesale deliveries to retailers are falling quickly, responding to the slowing pace of retail sales. However, deliveries from manufacturers and imports have not slowed as sharply. Unless retail sales revive, wholesalers will continue to cut their orders from manufacturers and imports, maintaining the downward pressure on the factory sector.

The signals in the manufacturing sector have become quite mixed. The diffusion indices suggest a slowing pace of growth while the factory and durable goods reports indicate an acceleration. In the past, when this type of divergence has occurred, the diffusion indices have usually been the better indicator.

Although the level of sales is still relatively high, the solid growth of the past three years has been arrested, helping the Fed's efforts to slow the pace of economic growth. However, mortgage rates have declined over the last six weeks, so further substantial weakness may not be forthcoming.

Although productivity is not likely to return to the supercharged pace of last year, it is likely to settle in comfortably above the 1.5 percent average pace during the 20 years before 1995.

The (Fed) may slow the pace of easing but they cannot stop yet.

Increased demand in expanding economies abroad and continued robust conditions at home support the production outlook, given the low inventory environment. The Fed is sure to view the economy as expanding at too fast a pace now that manufacturing is coming back and consumption remains quite strong.

Importantly for the Fed, the pace of real consumer spending slowed in March, and combined with early forecasts for lower vehicle and retail sales for April, suggests there is some scope for slower growth in the second quarter,

In the past year, ... the number of people receiving state benefits has increased by more than a million. Although the pace of layoffs has eased, job creation remains nonexistent.

The manufacturing sector continues to grow at a moderate pace but with less strength than in the prior couple of months.

The general slowing in the growth of the leading indicators over the past year suggests the pace of economic growth should gradually slow over the next three to six to nine months.